C ENTRE FOR A PPLIED M ACROECONOMIC A NALYSIS Working Paper Series
C ENTRE FOR A PPLIED M ACROECONOMIC A NALYSIS Working Paper Series
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DOI：
10.1162/asep_a_00156
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发表时间：
2012-02
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
自1950年代以来，世界两大人口大国（中国和印度）经历了重大且截然不同的人口转变。本世纪前三十年与这些转型相关的人口红利使用一个全球经济模型进行了研究，该模型包含了完整的人口行为和依赖措施，反映了工人与非工人的实际人数，而不是工作年龄与非工作年龄的人数。尽管中国的人口红利大部分已经过去，但对生育率和劳动力参与率未来趋势的其他假设被用来证明，中国至少在未来十年内不一定会进入“人口税收”时期。与中国相比，印度潜在的人口红利很大程度上取决于未来几十年的等待，其程度和持续时间主要取决于一系列因素。
The world's two population giants (China and India) have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that incorporates full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that reflect the actual number of workers to non-workers, rather than the number of working-aged to non-working-aged. Although much of China's demographic dividend now lies in the past, alternative assumptions about future trends in fertility and labor force participation rates are used to demonstrate that China will not necessarily enter a period of “demographic taxation” for at least another decade, if not longer. In contrast with China, much of India's potential demographic dividend lies in waiting for the decades ahead, with the extent and duration depending critically on a range of factors.