A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models
A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-20-4143-2016
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发表时间：
2016-10
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
N. Hanasaki;S. Yoshikawa;Kaoru Kakinuma;S. Kanae
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Hanasaki;S. Yoshikawa;Kaoru Kakinuma;S. Kanae
摘要。海水淡化是为沿海干旱区提供淡水的一项实用技术。事实上，由于这些地区不断增长的用水需求和技术进步导致的生产成本下降，海水淡化的使用正在迅速增加。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个模型来估计海水淡化可能被用作主要水源的地区和可能的产量。该模型旨在纳入明确包括人类用水的全球水文模型（GHMs）。该模型需要有关气候、收入水平、工业和城市用水的空间详细信息，这些信息代表温室气体排放因子中的标准投入/产出数据。该模型应用于一个特定的历史年份（2005年），并显示了目前世界上淡化水的地理分布和国家生产的相当好的再现。该模型在全球范围内应用于未来两个时期（2011-2040年和2041-2070年），在三种不同的社会经济条件下，即SSP（共享社会经济路径）1、SSP2和SSP3。结果表明，海水淡化的使用将在地理范围上大幅扩大，2011-2040年的海水淡化产量将比现在增加1.4 - 2.1倍（从2005年的2.8 × 109 m3 yr - 1增加到4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr - 1）， 2041-2070年将增加6.7 - 17.3倍（从18.7增加到48.6 × 109 m3 yr - 1）。每个时期的全球生产成本估计分别为1.1-10.6 × 109美元（占全球GDP总量的0.002 - 0.019%）、1.6-22.8 × 109美元（0.001 - 0.020%）和7.5-183.9 × 109美元（0.002 - 0.100%）。这些预测的巨大差异主要可归因于社会经济情景的差异。
Abstract. Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011–2040 and 2041–2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4–2.1-fold in 2011–2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr−1 in 2005 to 4.0–6.0 × 109 m3 yr−1), and 6.7–17.3-fold in 2041–2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr−1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1–10.6 × 109 (0.002–0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6–22.8 × 109 (0.001–0.020 %), and USD 7.5–183.9 × 109 (0.002–0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.