Impact of quarantine policies on port network performance and robustness during pandemics: a simulation-based analysis
Impact of quarantine policies on port network performance and robustness during pandemics: a simulation-based analysis
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DOI：
10.1080/03088839.2022.2159090
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发表时间：
2022-12
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Yaoming Zhou;Hang Yang;Xiwen Bai;Zhongjun Ma
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yaoming Zhou;Hang Yang;Xiwen Bai;Zhongjun Ma
为了遏制病毒在港口的传播，许多国家在2019冠状病毒病期间对来自国外的船只实施了检疫政策。因此，船舶选择跳过港口以节省时间或进行14天的隔离以确保关键供应，这两种情况都严重影响了港口网络的性能。然而，由于许多因素的综合影响，数据分析技术很难识别隔离政策对结果的影响。因此，为了在这种前所未有的政策下对单个船舶和港口进行网络范围的性能评估和详细评估，需要一个全球港口网络（GPN）的微观模拟模型。所提出的仿真方法基于来自自动识别系统（AIS）的真实船舶运动数据，并结合港口数据库。研究发现，检疫政策对特定口岸的影响由船舶跳港造成的直接影响和网络交互造成的间接影响两部分组成，并进一步由口岸所在位置和口岸实施的检疫政策决定。此外，还调查了全球港口网络在不同程度的大流行情况下和船舶跳过需要隔离的港口的不同速率下保持其性能的能力。有趣的是，在大多数情况下，适度的端口跳过率（通常在20%到50%之间）可以帮助提高网络性能。研究结果和提出的模拟方法可以帮助决策者应对COVID-19和潜在的全球灾难。
To contain the spread of the virus at ports, many countries have implemented quarantine policies for vessels from abroad during COVID-19. In response, vessels chose to skip the port to save time or undergo a 14-day quarantine to ensure critical supplies, both of which significantly affected the performance of the port network. However, due to the combined effect of many factors, data analysis techniques can hardly identify the impact of quarantine policies on the outcomes. Therefore, to enable both networkwide performance assessment and detailed evaluation for individual vessels and ports under such an unprecedented policy, a microscopic simulation model for the global port network (GPN) is desired. The proposed simulation method is based on real-world vessel movement data from Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) combined with a port database. It is found that the effect of the quarantine policy on a particular port consists of two parts, i.e. the direct impact caused by vessels' port skipping and the indirect impact caused by network interaction, which is further determined by the location of, and the policy implemented by the port. Furthermore, the ability of the global port network to maintain its performance under different levels of pandemic situations and different rates for vessels to skip the ports requiring quarantine is investigated. Interestingly, in most cases, a moderate port skipping rate (mostly between 20% and 50%) could help improve network performance. The results and presented simulation method can assist policymakers in coping with COVID-19 and potential global catastrophes.