Effect of climatic factors on the seasonal fluctuation of human brucellosis in Yulin, northern China
Effect of climatic factors on the seasonal fluctuation of human brucellosis in Yulin, northern China
复制标题
榆林市气候因素对人类布鲁氏菌病季节波动的影响
DOI：
10.1186/s12889-020-08599-4
复制
发表时间：
2020-04-16
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
Shao, Zhongjun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Kun;Yang, Zurong;Shao, Zhongjun
背景布鲁氏菌病是一个严重的公共卫生问题，主要影响畜牧业工人。该疾病的季节性很强，表明气候因素可能在疾病传播中起重要作用。然而，气候变化和人类布鲁氏菌病之间的关联仍然知之甚少。MethodsData的14年系列的人类布鲁氏菌病病例和7个气候因素收集在榆林市，2005年至2018年，在北方中国最流行的地区之一。采用交叉相关分析、格兰杰因果关系检验和分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM），对玉林市2005 - 2018年人间布鲁氏菌病发病与气候因子的定量关系和滞后效应进行了研究。人类布鲁氏菌病传播的季节性波动受温度、日照时间和蒸发量的显著影响。在6个月期间，气候因素的影响是非线性的，这些因素的较高值通常会增加发病率。最大独立相对危险度（RR）在温度为17.4 °C时为1.36（95%置信区间[CI]，1.03-1.81），日照311小时时为1.12（95% CI，1.03-1.22），蒸发量314 mm时为1.18（95% CI，0.94-1.48）。此外，这三个气候因子的影响是累积的，最高的RRs为2.27（95% CI，1.09-4.57），1.54（95% CI，1.10-2.18）和1.27（95%CI，0.73-2.14）。结论在中国北方榆林地区，气候因子，特别是气温、日照时数、和蒸发量的变化对6个月内布病的季节性波动有显著影响。布鲁氏菌病传播的关键决定因素和已确定的复杂关联是制定减少疾病负担战略的有用参考。
BackgroundBrucellosis is a serious public health problem primarily affecting livestock workers. The strong seasonality of the disease indicates that climatic factors may play important roles in the transmission of the disease. However, the associations between climatic variability and human brucellosis are still poorly understood.MethodsData for a 14-year series of human brucellosis cases and seven climatic factors were collected in Yulin City from 2005 to 2018, one of the most endemic areas in northern China. Using cross-correlation analysis, the Granger causality test, and a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), we assessed the quantitative relationships and exposure-lag-response effects between monthly climatic factors and human brucellosis.ResultsA total of 7103 cases of human brucellosis were reported from 2005 to 2018 in Yulin City with a distinct peak between April and July each year. Seasonal fluctuations in the transmission of human brucellosis were significantly affected by temperature, sunshine duration, and evaporation. The effects of climatic factors were non-linear over the 6-month period, and higher values of these factors usually increased disease incidence. The maximum separate relative risk (RR) was 1.36 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03–1.81) at a temperature of 17.4 °C, 1.12 (95% CI, 1.03–1.22) with 311 h of sunshine, and 1.18 (95% CI, 0.94–1.48) with 314 mm of evaporation. In addition, the effects of these three climatic factors were cumulative, with the highest RRs of 2.27 (95% CI, 1.09–4.57), 1.54 (95% CI, 1.10–2.18), and 1.27 (95% CI, 0.73–2.14), respectively.ConclusionsIn Yulin, northern China, variations in climatic factors, especially temperature, sunshine duration, and evaporation, contributed significantly to seasonal fluctuations of human brucellosis within 6 months. The key determinants of brucellosis transmission and the identified complex associations are useful references for developing strategies to reduce the disease burden.