Food-centric interlinkages in agricultural food-energy-water nexus under climate change and irrigation management
Food-centric interlinkages in agricultural food-energy-water nexus under climate change and irrigation management
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DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.105099
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发表时间：
2020-12
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
Sang-Hyun Lee;Jin-Yong Choi;S. Hur;M. Taniguchi;Naoki Masuhara;K. S. Kim;Shinwoo Hyun;Eun-Min Choi;J. Sung;S. Yoo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sang-Hyun Lee;Jin-Yong Choi;S. Hur;M. Taniguchi;Naoki Masuhara;K. S. Kim;Shinwoo Hyun;Eun-Min Choi;J. Sung;S. Yoo
本研究旨在评估气候变化和灌溉管理对以粮食为中心的水-能源-土地相互联系的整体影响，特别是在农业中的粮食-能源-水（FEW）关系。因此，我们分析了1990年至2099年的趋势和变化的生产力，灌溉需求，水稻生产的能源投入，这是在韩国的代表性作物，与8个大气环流模式（GCM）的气候变化情景。结果表明，气候变化会使水稻生产力下降，其变异性增大。在MIROC-ESM情景下，2020 - 2099年的灌溉需求估计为849 mm year-1，比1990 - 2018年增加了37 mm year-1。灌溉管理从连续灌溉到间歇灌溉的变化将影响农业FEW关系中的相互联系。间歇灌溉对节水有积极影响，但在气候变化下会降低生产力，并会增加生产力和灌溉需求的变化。最后，我们分析了蓝色的水和土地的足迹，作为相互联系的指标，在少数民族关系。特别是，我们根据足迹和降水通过K均值聚类对2020 - 2099年的8个GCM模拟结果进行了分类，以评估各种降水条件下足迹之间的差异。病例数量最多的病例被分类在以蓝色水足迹大但降水量低的陆地足迹小为特征的集群中。这些结果可以帮助开发农业FEW关系平台，考虑气候变化和灌溉管理的各种影响。
This study aimed to assess the holistic impacts of climate change and irrigation management on food centric water-energy-land interlinkages in the Food-Energy-Water (FEW) nexus specialized in agriculture. Accordingly, we analyzed the trends and variation in productivity, irrigation requirement, and energy input for paddy rice production, which is the representative crop in Korea, from 1990 to 2099 with eight general circulation models (GCMs) as climate change scenarios. Results showed that the productivity of paddy rice would decrease owing to climate change, and its variation would increase. Irrigation requirement under the MIROC-ESM scenario was estimated as 849 mm year−1in 2020−2099, which was 37 mm year−1greater than that in 1990−2018. The change in irrigation management from continuous to intermittent irrigation would affect the interlinkages in the agricultural FEW nexus. Intermittent irrigation could positively influence irrigation water savings but lower productivity under climate change, and would increase the variation in both productivity and irrigation requirement. Finally, we analyzed the blue water and land footprints as interlinkage indicators in the FEW nexus. In particular, we classified the simulation results from eight GCMs in 2020−2099 based on footprints and precipitation through K-means clustering to assess the differences between footprints under various precipitation conditions. The largest number of cases was classified in the cluster characterized by large blue water footprints but small land footprints under low precipitation. These results could help develop the agricultural FEW nexus platform considering the various impacts of climate change and irrigation management.