Helmet use and motorcycle fatalities in Taiwan
Helmet use and motorcycle fatalities in Taiwan
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DOI：
10.1016/j.aap.2004.09.006
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发表时间：
2005-03-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Keng, SH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keng, SH
2002年，摩托车死亡人数占台湾交通死亡人数的一半以上。本研究以1999年至2001年台湾地区警方报告的车祸数据为基础，在考虑样本选择偏差的同时，对头盔的有效性进行了评估。之所以选择样本，是因为头盔的使用会影响死亡或受伤的概率，而死亡或受伤的概率又会影响数据中是否包含撞车事故。结果表明，样本选择并没有严重影响头盔有效性的估计，头盔使车祸死亡概率降低了40%，高于以前的发现。如果没有头盔，2001年摩托车手死亡人数将增加51%。1999年至2001年间，戴头盔的摩托车手的估计比例从71%增加到78%，这表明在1997年强制性头盔法实施后，头盔的使用正在增加。此外，头盔可将车祸中头部和颈部受伤的可能性显着降低53%，并使头部和颈部受伤导致死亡的可能性降低71%。(C)2004爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Motorcycle deaths accounted for more than half of total traffic fatalities in Taiwan in 2002. This study uses the police-reported crash data from Taiwan between 1999 and 2001 to estimate the effectiveness of helmets, simultaneously taking into account of sample selection bias. Sample selection arises because helmet usage will affect the probability of death or injury, which in turn influences whether a crash is included in the data. The results show that sample selection does not seriously bias the estimate of helmet effectiveness and helmets reduce the probability of death in a crash by 40%, which is higher than what was previously found. Without helmets, the number of motorcyclists killed in 2001 would have jumped by 51%. The estimated proportion of helmeted motorcyclists has increased from 71 to 78% between 1999 and 2001, suggesting that helmet use is rising after the implementation of mandatory helmet law in 1997. Also, helmets significantly reduce the likelihood of head and neck injuries in a crash by 53%, and lead to a 71% reduction in the probability of death caused by head and neck injuries. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.