The impact of CAFTA on employment, production, and poverty in Honduras:
The impact of CAFTA on employment, production, and poverty in Honduras:
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CAFTA 对洪都拉斯就业、生产和贫困的影响：
DOI：
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Valeria Piñeiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Morley;Eduardo Nakasone;Valeria Piñeiro
“在本文中，我们开发了一个动态CGE模型来研究中美洲自由贸易协定对洪都拉斯生产、就业和贫困的影响。我们对该协议的四个方面进行了建模：关税削减、配额、对maquila原产地规则的改变以及对外国投资更慷慨的待遇。首先，我们发现CAFTA下的贸易自由化对经济增长、就业和贫困有正向影响，但影响较小。对洪都拉斯来说，真正重要的是装配业。CAFTA放宽了该行业进口产品的原产地规则。这将使产出增长率提高1.4%，并在2020年将贫困人口减少11%。为应对CAFTA，通过增加外国投资来增加资本形成，对增长、就业和贫困的影响更大。这些模拟说明了像洪都拉斯这样的国家的增长过程中一些重要的东西，在这些国家，我们似乎有理由假设，在固定的实际工资下，存在未充分就业的非熟练劳动力，他们愿意并且能够更多地工作。在这样一个经济体中，改变需求结构，有利于使用大量非熟练劳动力的部门，将对经济增长产生重大影响。这就是maquila模拟所做的，因为与熟练劳动力和资本相比，maquila使用了大量的非熟练劳动力。或者，可以通过提高资本形成率来增加资本供给。这两者中的任何一个对增长和贫困的影响都远远大于单独降低关税。
"In this paper we develop a dynamic CGE model to examine the impact of CAFTA on production, employment and poverty in Honduras. We model four aspects of the agreement: tariff reductions, quotas, changes in the rules of origin for maquila and more generous treatment of foreign investment. We first show that trade liberalization under CAFTA has a positive effect on growth, employment and poverty but the effect is small. What really matters for Honduras is the assembly (maquila) industry. CAFTA liberalized the rules of origin for imports into this industry. That raises the growth rate of output by 1.4% and reduces poverty by 11% in 2020 relative to what it would otherwise have been. Increasing capital formation through an increase in foreign investment in response to CAFTA has an even larger impact on growth, employment and poverty. These simulations say something important about the growth process in a country like Honduras in which it seems reasonable to assume that there is underemployed, unskilled labor willing and able to work more at a fixed real wage. In such an economy changing the structure of demand in favor of sectors that use a lot of unskilled labor will have a big impact on growth. That is what the maquila simulation does, because maquila uses a lot of unskilled labor relative to skilled labor and capital. Alternatively the supply of capital can be increased by increasing the rate of capital formation. Either of these two has a far larger impact on growth and poverty than tariff reductions alone." from Authors' Abstract
发展中国家的性别偏见和收入增长
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
International Food Policy Research Institute Discussion Paper (査読済み、印刷・編集中)(未定)
影响因子：
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作者：
Mika Ueyama;Futoshi Yamauchi;Mika Ueyama;Mika Ueyama;Mika Ueyama;Mika Ueyama
通讯作者：
Mika Ueyama
1996年、1999年和2002年印度尼西亚支出不平等的空间格局
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
Akita;T.
通讯作者：
T.