Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models
Regional and global projections of twenty-first century glacier mass changes in response to climate scenarios from global climate models
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DOI：
10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
V. Radic;A. Bliss;A. C. Beedlow;R. Hock;Evan S. Miles;Evan S. Miles;J. Cogley
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Radic;A. Bliss;A. C. Beedlow;R. Hock;Evan S. Miles;Evan S. Miles;J. Cogley
当今海平面上升的很大一部分原因是冰川的融化，而不是冰原的融化。最近对它们对21世纪全球海平面上升贡献的预估范围在70至180毫米之间，但由于冰川清查不足和缺乏低空测量数据，存在很大的不确定性。在这里，我们的目标是通过使用最近发布的包含世界上几乎所有冰川轮廓的全球清单来更新预测并改进其不确定性的量化。我们利用为政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告准备的14种全球气候模式（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）对瞬态空间分异温度和降水的预估，模拟了每个冰川的体积变化。多模式平均值表明，2006-2100年期间海平面上升155±41 mm （RCP4.5）和216±44 mm (RCP8.5)，使当前全球冰川体积减少29%或41%。预计全球体积损失的最大贡献者是加拿大和俄罗斯北极、阿拉斯加的冰川，以及南极和格陵兰冰盖周边的冰川。中欧、低纬度南美、高加索、北亚、加拿大西部和美国的冰川虽然对全球体积损失的贡献较小，但预计到2100年将损失80%以上的体积。然而，由于全球气候模式和排放情景的选择，预估仍然存在很大的不确定性。通过一系列敏感性测试，我们量化了由于使用稀疏观测到的冰川质量变化校准我们的模型而产生的额外不确定性。这给出了到2100年每次预估海平面上升±84毫米的不确定性范围的上限。
A large component of present-day sea-level rise is due to the melt of glaciers other than the ice sheets. Recent projections of their contribution to global sea-level rise for the twenty-first century range between 70 and 180 mm, but bear significant uncertainty due to poor glacier inventory and lack of hypsometric data. Here, we aim to update the projections and improve quantification of their uncertainties by using a recently released global inventory containing outlines of almost every glacier in the world. We model volume change for each glacier in response to transient spatially-differentiated temperature and precipitation projections from 14 global climate models with two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) prepared for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The multi-model mean suggests sea-level rise of 155 ± 41 mm (RCP4.5) and 216 ± 44 mm (RCP8.5) over the period 2006–2100, reducing the current global glacier volume by 29 or 41 %. The largest contributors to projected global volume loss are the glaciers in the Canadian and Russian Arctic, Alaska, and glaciers peripheral to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. Although small contributors to global volume loss, glaciers in Central Europe, low-latitude South America, Caucasus, North Asia, and Western Canada and US are projected to lose more than 80 % of their volume by 2100. However, large uncertainties in the projections remain due to the choice of global climate model and emission scenario. With a series of sensitivity tests we quantify additional uncertainties due to the calibration of our model with sparsely observed glacier mass changes. This gives an upper bound for the uncertainty range of ±84 mm sea-level rise by 2100 for each projection.