Plague and long-term development: the lasting effects of the 1629-30 epidemic on the Italian cities
Plague and long-term development: the lasting effects of the 1629-30 epidemic on the Italian cities
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DOI：
10.1111/ehr.12652
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发表时间：
2019-11-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Percoco, Marco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alfani, Guido;Percoco, Marco
本文旨在分析鼠疫对意大利城市长期发展的影响，特别关注1629-30年的流行病。利用1575-1700年间56个城市鼠疫死亡率的新数据集，估计了一个验证多重均衡存在的经济地理模型。研究发现，受1629-30年瘟疫影响严重的城市被转移到较低的增长路径。研究还发现，鼠疫对意大利城市人口规模和城市化率造成了长期损害。这些发现支持了一种假设，即17世纪的瘟疫在引发意大利经济相对衰落的过程中发挥了根本作用。
This article aims to analyse the effects of plague on the long-term development of Italian cities, with particular attention to the 1629-30 epidemic. By using a new dataset on plague mortality rates in 56 cities covering the period c. 1575-1700, an economic geography model verifying the existence of multiple equilibria is estimated. It is found that cities severely affected by the 1629-30 plague were displaced to a lower growth path. It is also found that plague caused long-lasting damage to the size of Italian urban populations and to urbanization rates. These findings support the hypothesis that seventeenth-century plagues played a fundamental role in triggering the process of relative decline of the Italian economies.