Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe
Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe
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平行宇宙中的人口老龄化和全球资本流动
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发表时间：
2000
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Robin Brooks
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作者：
Robin Brooks
本文采用具有完美资本流动性的多区域代际重叠模型来模拟预测人口趋势对国际资本流动的一般均衡效应。报告发现，老龄化婴儿潮一代的退休储蓄将使欧盟和北美的资本供应大幅高于投资，导致这两个地区在未来几年向非洲、拉丁美洲和其他新兴市场输出大量资本。然而，2010 年之后，欧盟和北美的婴儿潮一代将不再储蓄退休金，导致这两个地区成为资本输入地。这一转变将由拉丁美洲和其他新兴市场的资本流动提供资金，而由于人口持续高速增长，非洲在可预见的未来仍将依赖外国资本。尽管人口老龄化严重，预计日本在 2030 年之后仍将是重要的资本输出国。
This paper uses a multiregion overlapping generations model with perfect capital mobility to simulate the general equilibrium effects of projected population trends on international capital flows. It finds that retirement saving by aging baby boomers will raise the supply of capital substantially above investment in both the European Union and North America, causing both regions to export large amounts of capital to Africa, Latin America, and other emerging markets in the years ahead. Beyond 2010, however, baby boomers in the European Union and North America will dissave in retirement, causing both regions to become capital importers. This shift will be financed by capital flows from Latin America and other emerging markets, while Africa will remain dependent on foreign capital for the foreseeable future because of continued high population growth. Despite severe population aging, Japan is predicted to remain a substantial capital exporter beyond 2030.