Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave
Dramatically increasing chance of extremely hot summers since the 2003 European heatwave
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2468
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Stott, Peter A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Christidis, Nikolaos;Jones, Gareth S.;Stott, Peter A.
全球气候系统（1）明确变暖的社会经济压力主要通过天气和气候极端事件（2）被社会所感受到。欧洲公民的脆弱性在2003年夏季的热浪中表现得很明显（参考文献3，4），当时与高温有关的死亡人数达到数万人（5）。根据第一次正式的事件归因研究，人类的影响至少使事件发生的可能性增加了一倍（6），该研究还做出了不祥的预测，即到2040年代，严重的热浪可能会变得司空见惯。在这里，我们调查了在欧洲受影响最严重的地区之一的另一个极端炎热的夏天的可能性在原始研究发表后十年发生了变化，从那时起观察到的夏季温度增加了0.81 K。我们的分析得益于几个新模型的新观测和数据的可用性。使用以前使用的温度阈值来定义极端炎热的夏天，我们发现，在21世纪初，世纪会发生两次的事件现在预计会发生两次。对于2003年观测到的更极端的临界值，回归时间从20世纪后期的数千年减少到十年多一点的大约100年。
Socio-economic stress from the unequivocal warming of the global climate system(1) could be mostly felt by societies through weather and climate extremes(2). The vulnerability of European citizens was made evident during the summer heatwave of 2003 (refs 3,4) when the heat-related death toll ran into tens of thousands(5). Human influence at least doubled the chances of the event according to the first formal event attribution study(6), which also made the ominous forecast that severe heatwaves could become commonplace by the 2040s. Here we investigate how the likelihood of having another extremely hot summer in one of the worst affected parts of Europe has changed ten years after the original study was published, given an observed summer temperature increase of 0.81 K since then. Our analysis benefits from the availability of new observations and data from several new models. Using a previously employed temperature threshold to define extremely hot summers, we find that events that would occur twice a century in the early 2000s are now expected to occur twice a decade. For the more extreme threshold observed in 2003, the return time reduces from thousands of years in the late twentieth century to about a hundred years in little over a decade.