Modeling of Steroid Estrogen Contamination in UK and South Australian Rivers Predicts Modest Increases in Concentrations in the Future
Modeling of Steroid Estrogen Contamination in UK and South Australian Rivers Predicts Modest Increases in Concentrations in the Future
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DOI：
10.1021/es3051058
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发表时间：
2013-07-02
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Jobling, Susan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Green, Christopher;Williams, Richard;Jobling, Susan
随着人们对药物和个人护理产品的生物效应日益关注，预测它们在水生环境中现在和未来所构成的风险是这些污染物的20大研究问题之一。鱼和其他动物。为此目的，重要的是确定风险最大的地区，特别是在面临水资源紧张的国家，那里进入河网的污染物稀释程度较有限。这项研究首次使用水文模型来估计南澳大利亚和英国一个缺水集水区的药物和天然类固醇雌激素浓度，并根据人口和气候变化预测预测2050年它们的浓度。预测（模拟）澳大利亚污水处理厂和一条接收河流流出物中类固醇雌激素的模拟浓度与在英国和欧洲观察到的相似，超过了对野生鱼类雌性化无影响的综合雌二醇当量的预测浓度。此外，预计到2050年，雌激素污染和对野生动物的潜在风险将适度增加，浓度将增加两倍。
The prediction of risks posed by pharmaceuticals and personal care products in the aquatic environment now and in the future is one of the top 20 research questions regarding these contaminants following growing concern for their biological effects. on fish and other animals. To this end it is important that areas experiencing the greatest risk are identified, particularly in countries experiencing water stress, where dilution of pollutants entering river networks is more limited. This study is the first to use hydrological models to estimate concentrations of pharmaceutical and natural steroid estrogens in a water stressed catchment in South Australia alongside a UK catchment and to forecast their concentrations in 2050 based on demographic and climate change predictions The results show that despite their differing climates and demographics, modeled concentrations of steroid estrogens in effluents from Australian sewage treatment works and a receiving river were predicted (simulated) to be similar to those observed in the UK and Europe, exceeding the combined estradiol equivalent's predicted no effect concentration for feminization in wild fish. Furthermore, by 2050 a moderate increase in estrogenic contamination and the potential risk to wildlife was predicted with up to a 2-fold rise in concentrations.