Modelling and projecting the response of local assemblage composition to land use change across Colombia
Modelling and projecting the response of local assemblage composition to land use change across Colombia
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DOI：
10.1111/ddi.12478
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发表时间：
2016-11-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Purvis, Andy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Echeverria-Londono, Susy;Newbold, Tim;Purvis, Andy
目的了解土地利用变化的影响内组合是根本的缓解政策在地方和区域尺度。在这里，我们的目标是量化如何网站一级的陆地组合响应土地利用变化在哥伦比亚一个巨大的多样化的国家和项目未来的生物多样性与气候变化policy.Location哥伦比亚（北方南美洲）的土地利用变化的不同情景下。方法我们整理了原始的生物多样性数据从17个出版物（285网站），研究人类的影响如何影响哥伦比亚的陆地生物多样性。从每个网站，我们估计组成的完整性（即组成的相似性，未受干扰的网站）。我们拟合了广义线性混合效应模型，以估计这些当地生物多样性的措施如何在土地利用栖息地之间变化。利用空间换时间替代，我们将我们的估计应用于1500年以来生物多样性的变化，并预测了四个代表性集中途径（RCPs）在气候变化政策下的未来变化。结果城市、农田和牧场地点的群落在组成上与原始植被有很大不同。我们推断，迄今为止，哥伦比亚的平均成分完整性已减少了18%，具有很强的区域差异。未来生物多样性的最佳RCP方案是GCAM-RCP 4.5，一条有利于扩大次生林下一个强大的碳市场的路径，而最糟糕的是MESSAGE-RCP 8.5，“一切照旧”的场景。主要结论土地利用变化驱动了哥伦比亚的生态组合的组成不断变化。到2095年，GCAM-RCP 4.5气候变化碳市场政策的实施将缓解群落组成的变化。相比之下，“一切照旧”情景MESSAGE-RCP 8.5预测了一个急剧的社区变化，使生态系统的质量处于危险之中。
Aim Understanding the impact of land use change within assemblages is fundamental to mitigation policies at local and regional scale. Here, we aim to quantify how site-level terrestrial assemblages are responding to land use change in Colombia a mega-diverse country and to project future biodiversity under different scenarios of land use change associated with climate change policies.Location Colombia (northern South America).Methods We collated original biodiversity data from 17 publications (285 sites) that examined how human impact affects terrestrial biodiversity in Colombia. From each site we estimated compositional intactness (i.e. compositional similarity to undisturbed sites). We fitted generalized linear mixed-effects models to estimate how these measures of local biodiversity vary across land use habitats. Using space-for-time substitution, we applied our estimates to hindcast biodiversity changes since 1500 and project future changes under climate change policies of the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs).Results Assemblages in urban, cropland and pasture sites were compositionally very different from those in primary vegetation. We infer that average compositional intactness has been reduced by 18% across Colombia to date, with strong regional variation. The best RCP scenario for future biodiversity is GCAM-RCP4.5, a path that favours the expansion of secondary forests under a strong carbon market; while the worst is MESSAGE-RCP8.5, 'the business-as-usual' scenario.Main conclusions Land use change has driven an increasing change in the composition of ecological assemblages in Colombia. By 2095, the implementation of carbon markets policy of climate change from GCAM-RCP4.5 could mitigate these changes in community composition. In contrast, the business-as-usual scenario MESSAGE-RCP8.5 predicts a steep community change placing the quality of ecosystems at risk.