A 500-Year Tree Ring-Based Reconstruction of Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation and Number of Atmospheric River Landfalls Across the Southwestern United States
A 500-Year Tree Ring-Based Reconstruction of Extreme Cold-Season Precipitation and Number of Atmospheric River Landfalls Across the Southwestern United States
复制标题
基于 500 年树轮的美国西南部极端寒冷季节降水量和大气河流登陆数量的重建
DOI：
10.1029/2018gl078089
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lall, Upmanu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Steinschneider, Scott;Ho, Michelle;Williams, A. Park;Cook, Edward R.;Lall, Upmanu
这项研究利用树轮年表和生命混合干旱地图集(LBDA)建立了一个重建美国西南部极端冷季降水频率和登陆大气河流(AR)风暴路径的网络，LBDA是一个基于夏季帕尔默干旱严重指数的500年树轮重建。西南地区LBDA的前两个旋转经验正交函数被证明与先前发现的区域AR活动模式有很好的相关性。因此，旋转的经验正交函数也记录了与这些ARs相关的极端降水的模式，尽管非极端降水带来了一些不确定性。一个对冷季降水敏感的年表网络被用来重建加州南部海岸登陆AR和极端降水的发生，首次证明了基于树状气候代理网络中的空间格局重建AR登陆和极端事件在西南部的可行性。
This study develops a reconstruction of the frequency of extreme cold‐season precipitation and the occurrence of landfalling atmospheric river (AR) storm tracks across the southwestern Unites States using a network of tree ring chronologies and the Living Blended Drought Atlas (LBDA), a 500‐year tree ring based reconstruction of the summer Palmer Drought Severity Index. The first two rotated empirical orthogonal functions of the LBDA across the Southwest are shown to relate well to previously identified patterns of regional AR activity. Accordingly, the rotated empirical orthogonal functions also record patterns of extreme precipitation associated with those ARs, albeit with some uncertainty introduced by nonextreme precipitation. A network of chronologies sensitive to cold‐season precipitation is then used to reconstruct the occurrence of landfalling ARs and extreme precipitation along the southern Californian coast, demonstrating for the first time the feasibility of reconstructing AR landfalls and extreme events in the Southwest based on spatial patterns in a network of dendroclimatic proxies.