Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the 'yield gap' of croplands around the world?
Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the 'yield gap' of croplands around the world?
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00563.x
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发表时间：
2010-11-01
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Ramankutty, Navin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Licker, Rachel;Johnston, Matt;Ramankutty, Navin
目的随着未来几十年对粮食、饲料和燃料的需求增加，社会将面临增加农业生产的压力--无论是通过增加已有耕地的产量，还是通过耕种目前的自然区域--或改变目前的作物消费模式。在这项分析中，我们考虑了现有农田中哪些地方可以增加产量，以及作物产量是如何受到生物物理(例如气候)和管理因素的限制的。位置本研究是在全球范围内进行的。方法利用空间数据集，比较气候相似地区18种最主要作物的产量模式。我们使用这种比较来评估每种作物在世界各地不同气候下的潜在产量。然后，我们将每种作物目前实现的实际产量与它们的“气候潜在产量”进行比较，以估计“产量差距”。结果我们提供了2000年前后18种作物的气候潜在产量和产量差距模式的空间数据集。这些数据集描绘了世界上符合其气候潜力的地区，并突出了可能提高产量的地方。大多数情况下，低产量差距集中在发达国家或农业投入相对较高的地区。主要结论虽然气候等生物物理因素是全球作物产量模式的关键驱动因素，但控制这些因素表明，可归因于其他因素的产量仍有相当大的范围，如土地管理做法。在常规做法下，要使作物产量达到其气候潜力，可能需要更多的化学、养分和水投入。这些集约化的土地管理做法可能会对生态系统的商品和服务产生不利影响，进而影响人类福祉。在社会发展出更可持续的高产种植方式之前，在制定未来粮食情景时，必须明确提高作物生产力与社会和生态因素之间的权衡。
AimAs the demands for food, feed and fuel increase in coming decades, society will be pressed to increase agricultural production - whether by increasing yields on already cultivated lands or by cultivating currently natural areas - or to change current crop consumption patterns. In this analysis, we consider where yields might be increased on existing croplands, and how crop yields are constrained by biophysical (e.g. climate) versus management factors.LocationThis study was conducted at the global scale.MethodsUsing spatial datasets, we compare yield patterns for the 18 most dominant crops within regions of similar climate. We use this comparison to evaluate the potential yield obtainable for each crop in different climates around the world. We then compare the actual yields currently being achieved for each crop with their 'climatic potential yield' to estimate the 'yield gap'.ResultsWe present spatial datasets of both the climatic potential yields and yield gap patterns for 18 crops around the year 2000. These datasets depict the regions of the world that meet their climatic potential, and highlight places where yields might potentially be raised. Most often, low yield gaps are concentrated in developed countries or in regions with relatively high-input agriculture.Main conclusionsWhile biophysical factors like climate are key drivers of global crop yield patterns, controlling for them demonstrates that there are still considerable ranges in yields attributable to other factors, like land management practices. With conventional practices, bringing crop yields up to their climatic potential would probably require more chemical, nutrient and water inputs. These intensive land management practices can adversely affect ecosystem goods and services, and in turn human welfare. Until society develops more sustainable high-yielding cropping practices, the trade-offs between increased crop productivity and social and ecological factors need to be made explicit when future food scenarios are formulated.