Reexamining the Relative Agreement Model of Opinion Dynamics
Reexamining the Relative Agreement Model of Opinion Dynamics
复制标题
重新审视意见动态的相对一致性模型
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Cliff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Michael Meadows;D. Cliff
我们介绍了代理群体中意见动态模型的简史，并总结了从有界置信模型（Krause 2000；Hegselmann and Krause 2002）的创建到相对一致性（RA）模型（Deffuant et al. 2002；Deffuant 2006）的最新发展的工作。在 RA 模型中，随机选择的代理对进行交互，表达他们的意见以及他们对这些意见的信心；然后每个代理根据新信息更新自己的意见。两篇开创性的 RA 论文（Deffuant et al. 2002，Deffuant 2006）均发表在 JASSS 上，每篇论文都展示了我们试图独立复制的 RA 模型的模拟结果。我们调查了 150 多篇引用 Deffuant 等人的论文。 2002 年，但尚未发现 2002 年论文中提出的 RA 模型关键实证结果的独立复制。我们各自编写了 RA 模型的单独实现（一个用 Java 实现，一个用 Python 实现，两者都作为本文的附录完整发布），因此我们相信这是 2002 年 JASSS 论文中发布的 RA 模型的第一个独立复制。我们发现，我们对 RA 模型的实现都产生了彼此非常一致的结果，但两者都与 Deffuant 等人提出的结果有很大不同。我们的结果是与分析和讨论一起提出的，我们从第一原理出发，认为我们的结果比 2002 年 JASSS 论文中发表的结果更可信。我们最后讨论该模型的相关性以及未来的适用性。
We present a brief history of models of opinion dynamics in groups of agents, and summarise work from the creation of the Bounded Confidence model (Krause 2000; Hegselmann and Krause 2002) through to the more recent development of the Relative Agreement (RA) model (Deffuant et al. 2002; Deffuant 2006). In the RA model, randomly-selected pairs of agents interact, expressing their opinions and their confidence in those opinions; and each agent then updates their own opinion on the basis of the new information. The two seminal RA papers (Deffuant et al. 2002, Deffuant 2006), both published in JASSS, each present simulation results from the RA model that we have attempted to independently replicate. We have surveyed over 150 papers that cite Deffuant et al. 2002, yet have found no prior independent replications of the key empirical results for the RA model presented in the 2002 paper. We have each written a separate implementation of the RA model (one in Java, one in Python, both published in full as appendices to this paper) which we therefore believe to be the first independent replications of the RA model as published in the 2002 JASSS paper. We find that both our implementations of the RA model generate results that are in good agreement with each other, but both of which differ very significantly from those presented by Deffuant et al.. Our results are presented along with an analysis and discussion where we argue from first principles that our results are more plausible than those published in the 2002 JASSS paper. We close with discussion of the relevance of this model, along with future applicability.