Long‐term change of seasonal snow cover and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim River basin, northwestern China
Long‐term change of seasonal snow cover and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim River basin, northwestern China
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DOI：
10.1002/hyp.7334
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发表时间：
2009-07
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Changchun Xu;Yaning Chen;Yimit Hamid;T. Tashpolat;Yapeng Chen;Hongtao Ge;Weihong Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Changchun Xu;Yaning Chen;Yimit Hamid;T. Tashpolat;Yapeng Chen;Hongtao Ge;Weihong Li
利用专用传感器微波/成像仪（SSM/I）和扫描多通道微波辐射计（SMMR） 1979 - 2005年的观测资料，利用经验正交函数（EOF）研究了塔里木河流域雪深的时空变化特征。采用Mann - Kendall非参数检验方法分析了积雪深度和径流的长期变化趋势，并利用回归分析方法分析和讨论了积雪深度变化和气候因素对径流的影响。结果表明，整个盆地的雪深变化具有4种模式：完全一致模式、南北对比模式、北-中-南对比模式和复杂模式。第一种模式占总方差的39.13%。整个盆地主要受一个大尺度天气系统的影响。但流域不同区域间也存在着时空差异。显著的雪深变化主要发生在阿克苏河流域，80年代雪深异常低于正常值，90年代雪深异常高于正常值。积雪深度的长期变化趋势在流域西北部、西部和南部显著，径流的长期变化趋势在流域西北部和东北部显著。回归分析表明，融雪水补给河流径流量与夏季降水的关系主要与夏季降水有关，其次与夏季气温和冷季最大雪深有关。我们的研究结果表明，虽然积雪深度缓慢增加，但积雪不是源头径流增加的主要因素。正是气候因素导致了源头水量的持续稳定增长。版权所有©2009 John Wiley & Sons， Ltd
Spatio‐temporal variation of snow depth in the Tarim River basin has been studied by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) based on the data collected by special sensor microwave/imager (SSM/I) and scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMMR) during the period from 1979 to 2005. The long‐term trend of snow depth and runoff was presented using the Mann‐Kendall non‐parametric test, and the effects of the variations of snow depth and climatic factors on runoff were analysed and discussed by means of the regression analysis. The results suggested that the snow depth variation on the entire basin was characterised by four patterns: all consistency, north–south contrast, north‐middle‐south contrast and complex. The first pattern accounting 39·13% of the total variance was dominant. The entire basin was mainly affected by one large‐scale weather system. However, the spatial and temporal differences also existed among the different regions in the basin. The significant snow depth changes occurred mainly in the Aksu River basin with the below‐normal snow depth anomalies in the 1980s and the above‐normal snow depth anomalies in the 1990s. The long‐term trend of snow depth was significant in the northwestern, western and southern parts of the basin, whereas the long‐term trend of runoff was significant in the northwestern and northeastern parts. The regression analysis revealed that the runoff of the rivers replenished by snow melt water and rainfall was related primarily to the summer precipitation, followed by the summer temperature or the maximum snow depth in the cold season. Our results suggest that snow is not the principal factor that contributes to the runoff increase in headstreams, although there was a slow increase in snow depth. It is the climatic factors that are responsible for the steady and continuous water increase in the headstreams. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.