Breaking up is hard to do: The Neil Sedaka theory of independence referendums
Breaking up is hard to do: The Neil Sedaka theory of independence referendums
复制标题
分手很难：尼尔·塞达卡的独立公投理论
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
M. Qvortrup
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Qvortrup
本文分析了有利于承认独立公投和赢得这些选票的因素。在回顾了独立公投的历史和总结了法律的立场之后，本文认为，独立公投最有可能在符合联合国安理会理事会三个西方大国利益的情况下实施。虽然在统计学上，支持独立（赞成票）与国际承认之间存在显著相关性，但这远低于安全理事会三个西方常任理事国的支持与国际承认之间的100%相关性。各国可能会引用法律的、民主和哲学原则，但统计和历史事实表明，在独立公投后承认国家时，这些原则是次要的。
This article analyses the factors conducive to recognising independence referendums and to winning these votes. After a tour d’horizon of the history of referendums on independence and a summary of the legal position, this article argues that independence referendums are most likely to be implemented when this is in the interest of the three Western powers on the UN Security Council. While there is a statistically significant correlation between the support for independence (the yes-vote) and international recognition, this is much lower than the 100% association between support of the three permanent Western powers on the Security Council and international recognition. Countries may cite legal, democratic and philosophical principles, but the statistical and historical facts suggest that these are of secondary importance when it comes to recognising states after independence referendums.