Dynamic Bradley-Terry modelling of sports tournaments
Dynamic Bradley-Terry modelling of sports tournaments
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-9876.2012.01046.x
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
Firth, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cattelan, Manuela;Varin, Cristiano;Firth, David
在通常持续几个月的全国体育锦标赛过程中，预计参加锦标赛的球队的能力将随着时间的推移而变化。一个动态扩展的布拉德利-特里模型的配对比较数据被引入到体育比赛的结果建模，允许随时间变化的能力。假设球队的主客场能力取决于过去的结果，通过指数加权移动平均过程。提出的模型被应用到体育数据与不并列的比赛，即2009-2010年常规赛的美国国家篮球协会锦标赛和2008-2009年意大利意甲足球赛季。
In the course of national sports tournaments, usually lasting several months, it is expected that the abilities of teams taking part in the tournament will change over time. A dynamic extension of the Bradley-Terry model for paired comparison data is introduced to model the outcomes of sporting contests, allowing for time varying abilities. It is assumed that teams' home and away abilities depend on past results through exponentially weighted moving average processes. The model proposed is applied to sports data with and without tied contests, namely the 2009-2010 regular season of the National Basketball Association tournament and the 2008-2009 Italian Serie A football season.