An emerging tropical cyclone–deadly heat compound hazard
An emerging tropical cyclone–deadly heat compound hazard
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-019-0525-6
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发表时间：
2019-07
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
T. Matthews;R. Wilby;Conor Murphy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Matthews;R. Wilby;Conor Murphy
气候变化可能通过极端天气的新组合（复合事件）带来新的危害。在这里，我们评估了主要热带气旋（TC）后危险高温的可能性-考虑到强大的TC可能会导致大停电，以及对空调的严重依赖，这种组合具有严重的潜在后果。我们表明，“TC热”事件已经有可能在全球人口稠密的海岸线沿着发生，但到目前为止，估计只有1,000人受到影响。然而，这一数字可能会显着上升，超过200万人面临风险，因为观察到的TC在比工业化前时代高2 °C的世界中反复出现。例如，使用类似物作为聚焦事件，我们表明，如果灾难性的1991年孟加拉国气旋发生在全球变暖2 °C的情况下，那么随后发生危险高温的可能性将超过70%。这项研究强调了适应规划方面的差距，以及为新出现的TC-热复合危害做准备的必要性。
Climate change may bring new hazards through novel combinations of extreme weather (compound events). Here we evaluate the possibility of dangerous heat following major tropical cyclones (TCs)—a combination with serious potential consequences given that mega-blackouts may follow powerful TCs, and the heavy reliance on air conditioning. We show that ‘TC–heat’ events are already possible along densely populated coastlines globally but, to date, only an estimated 1,000 people have been impacted. However, this number could rise markedly with over two million at risk under a storyline of the observed TCs recurring in a world 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial times. Using analogues as focusing events we show, for example, that if the catastrophic 1991 Bangladesh cyclone occurred with 2 °C global warming, there would be >70% chance of subsequent dangerous heat. This research highlights a gap in adaptation planning and a need to prepare for an emerging TC–heat compound hazard.