Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment.

Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment.
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DOI:
10.1080/00324728.2012.697569
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发表时间:
2012-11
期刊:
Population studies
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Beaujouan E
Beaujouan E
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Ní Bhrolcháin M;Beaujouan E

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教育入学率的提高经常被认为是发达国家晚育趋势的一个可能原因,但很少有直接证据表明这对生育节奏的总体变化起到了作用。我们发现,入学人数的增加导致了教育结束时的晚龄,这是上世纪80年代和90年代英国和法国初次生育平均年龄上升的主要原因。在此期间推迟首次生育有两个组成部分:较长的平均入学时间和入学后的组成部分,这也与教育水平有关。几乎可以肯定的是,教育参与率的上升与生育时机推迟之间的关系是有因果关系的。因此,我们的发现表明,生育率节奏的变化植根于宏观经济和结构性力量,而不是文化领域。
The rise in educational enrolment is often cited as a possible cause of the trend to later childbearing in developed societies but direct evidence of its contribution to the aggregate change in fertility tempo is scarce. We show that rising enrolment, resulting in later ages at the end of education, accounts for a substantial part of the upward shift in the mean age at first birth in the 1980s and 1990s in Britain and in France. The postponement of first birth over that period has two components: a longer average period of enrolment and a post-enrolment component that is also related to educational level. The relationship between rising educational participation and the move to later fertility timing is almost certainly causal. Our findings therefore suggest that fertility tempo change is rooted in macro-economic and structural forces rather than in the cultural domain.
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