Analysis of the impact of lockdown on the reproduction number of the SARS-Cov-2 in Spain
Analysis of the impact of lockdown on the reproduction number of the SARS-Cov-2 in Spain
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gaceta.2020.05.003
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发表时间：
2021-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Moriña, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hyafil, Alexandre;Moriña, David
目标：2019年底爆发的COVID-19疫情已使许多国家的卫生系统达到极限。到目前为止，受影响最严重的欧洲国家是意大利和西班牙。在这两个国家（和其他国家），当局根据当地的具体情况颁布了封锁令。这项工作的目的是评价西班牙为对付这一流行病而采取的措施的影响。方法：我们根据截至2020年4月15日的住院报告估计了病例数量和封锁对再现性数量的影响。结果如下：估计的病例数显示，在封锁之前急剧增加，随后放缓，然后在实施全面隔离后下降。基本繁殖率的差异也很显著，从封锁前的5.89（95%置信区间[95%CI]：5.46-7.09）降至封锁后的0.48（95%CI：0.15-1.17）。结论：应对像COVID-19这样的大流行病是复杂的，需要快速决策。在疾病传播速度方面发现的巨大差异表明，能够在最早阶段实施干预措施对于尽量减少潜在传染威胁的影响至关重要。我们的工作还强调了可靠的最新流行病学数据的重要性，以便准确评估公共卫生政策对病毒爆发的影响。(c)2020年SESPAS。出版社：Elsevier Espana，S.L.U.这是一个在CC BY-NC-ND许可证下的开放获取文章（http：//creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/）。
Objective: The late 2019 COVID-19 outbreak has put the health systems of many countries to the limit of their capacity. The most affected European countries are, so far, Italy and Spain. In both countries (and others), the authorities decreed a lockdown, with local specificities. The objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of the measures undertaken in Spain to deal with the pandemic. Method: We estimated the number of cases and the impact of lockdown on the reproducibility number based on the hospitalization reports up to April 15th 2020. Results: The estimated number of cases shows a sharp increase until the lockdown, followed by a slowing down and then a decrease after full quarantine was implemented. Differences in the basic reproduction ratio are also significant, dropping from 5.89 (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 5.46-7.09) before the lockdown to 0.48 (95%CI: 0.15-1.17) afterwards. Conclusions: Handling a pandemic like COVID-19 is complex and requires quick decision making. The large differences found in the speed of propagation of the disease show us that being able to implement interventions at the earliest stage is crucial to minimise the impact of a potential infectious threat. Our work also stresses the importance of reliable up to date epidemiological data in order to accurately assess the impact of Public Health policies on viral outbreak. (c) 2020 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana, S.L.U. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).