What drives inflation perceptions? A dynamic panel data analysis
What drives inflation perceptions? A dynamic panel data analysis
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是什么推动了通胀认知？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Mordonu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Döhring;A. Mordonu
在欧元现金转换的时刻，欧元区的通胀认知偏离了衡量通胀，在一些欧元区成员国，这种偏离持续存在。近年来，越来越多的文献研究了可能解释这种偏差的因素。本文正式检验了文献中提出的各种解释。本文采用欧元区层面的跨国视角，通过动态面板数据模型进行实证实施。通货膨胀的感知被发现是高度持久的（自回归项很大，统计上非常显著）。与许多描述性文献相反，研究发现，“自付支出”指数并不比所有项目HICP指数更能解释人们对通胀的看法。正如心理学实验表明的那样，通胀预期似乎有助于通胀感知的形成，尽管程度有限。住宅房地产价格对通胀感知有显著影响，表明家庭在形成通胀感知时对生活成本有更广泛的看法。我们的研究结果对政策、进一步的研究议程和统计的发展都有影响。特别是，持续存在的通胀观念使我们认为，在引入欧元之前，沟通努力对于锚定观念至关重要。一旦人们的看法增强，要让它们与衡量通胀保持一致将会困难得多。
At the moment of the euro cash changeover, inflation perceptions in the euro area deviated from measured inflation, and in some euro-area Member States in a persistent way. In recent years, a growing body of literature has developed on the factors that might explain this deviation. This paper formally tests various explanations advanced in this literature. It adopts a cross-country perspective at the level of the euro area which is empirically implemented through a dynamic panel data model. Inflation perceptions are found to be highly persistent (the autoregressive term is large and statistically highly significant). In contrast to much of the - descriptive - literature, an index of "out-of-the-pocket expenditure" is found not to explain inflation perceptions better than does the all-items HICP index. As suggested by psychological experiments, inflation expectations seem to contribute to the formation of inflation perceptions, although to a limited extent. Prices of residential real estate contribute significantly to inflation perceptions, suggesting that households have a broader view of the cost of living when forming inflation perceptions. Our results have implications for policy, for the further research agenda and for the development of statistics. In particular, the persistence of inflation perceptions makes us think that communication efforts prior to euro introduction are essential to anchor perceptions. Once perceptions increase, it will be much harder to bring them back in line with measured inflation.