Influenza activity in Europe during eight seasons (1999-2007): an evaluation of the indicators used to measure activity and an assessment of the timing, length and course of peak activity (spread) across Europe
Influenza activity in Europe during eight seasons (1999-2007): an evaluation of the indicators used to measure activity and an assessment of the timing, length and course of peak activity (spread) across Europe
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-7-141
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发表时间：
2007-11-30
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
van der Velden, Koos
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Paget, John;Marquet, Richard;van der Velden, Koos
背景：自1996年以来，欧洲流感监测计划（EISS）在越来越多的国家中收集了有关流感的临床和病毒学数据。 EISS数据集用于表征欧洲八个冬季（1999-2007）中欧洲流感活动的重要流行病学特征。解决了以下问题：1）哨兵临床报告是否可以很好地衡量流感活动？ 2）欧洲一个典型的流感季节要多长时间？ 3）在欧洲流感的峰值活动（“传播”）的西方和/或南北部课程？方法：通过收集Sentinel Generalingers（GPS）的数据以及国家参考实验室的报告来衡量流感活动。 。首先通过将它们与实验室报告进行比较，然后用来评估八个季节中流感活动的时间和传播。我们发现临床前哨数据数据与收集流感的实验室报告之间有很好的匹配。通过哨兵医生（+/- 1周的差异为72％）。我们还发现了来自非内线源的临床前哨数据和实验室报告之间的中等至良好匹配（+/- 1周的总匹配为60％）。使用ILI（流感样疾病）或ARI（急性呼吸道疾病）的国家之间没有统计学上的显着差异。当观察临床活动的高峰时期时，欧洲流感季节的平均长度为15.6周（中值15周；范围12-19周）。绘制Sentinel GP在每个国家的经度或纬度报道的临床流感活性的峰值周数表明，在四个冬季，欧洲流感的峰值活动（2001-2002，2002-2003）发生了峰值活动（传播） ，2003-2004和2004-2005）和三个冬季（2001-2002、2004-2005和2006-2007）中的南北蔓延。结论：我们发现那就是：1）哨兵医师报告的临床数据是流感活动的有效指标； 2）整个欧洲的流感活动的长度令人惊讶地长，范围为12-19周； 3）在整个8个赛季中的4个季节中，流感蔓延，在3个赛季中，南北传播。在那些季节中与主要病毒类型无关。
Background: The European Influenza Surveillance Scheme (EISS) has collected clinical and virological data on influenza since 1996 in an increasing number of countries. The EISS dataset was used to characterise important epidemiological features of influenza activity in Europe during eight winters (1999-2007). The following questions were addressed: 1) are the sentinel clinical reports a good measure of influenza activity? 2) how long is a typical influenza season in Europe? 3) is there a west-east and/ or south-north course of peak activity ('spread') of influenza in Europe?Methods: Influenza activity was measured by collecting data from sentinel general practitioners (GPs) and reports by national reference laboratories. The sentinel reports were first evaluated by comparing them to the laboratory reports and were then used to assess the timing and spread of influenza activity across Europe during eight seasons.Results: We found a good match between the clinical sentinel data and laboratory reports of influenza collected by sentinel physicians (overall match of 72% for +/-1 week difference). We also found a moderate to good match between the clinical sentinel data and laboratory reports of influenza from non-sentinel sources (overall match of 60% for +/-1 week). There were no statistically significant differences between countries using ILI (influenza-like illness) or ARI (acute respiratory disease) as case definition. When looking at the peak-weeks of clinical activity, the average length of an influenza season in Europe was 15.6 weeks (median 15 weeks; range 12-19 weeks). Plotting the peak weeks of clinical influenza activity reported by sentinel GPs against the longitude or latitude of each country indicated that there was a west-east spread of peak activity (spread) of influenza across Europe in four winters (2001-2002, 2002-2003, 2003-2004 and 2004-2005) and a south-north spread in three winters (2001-2002, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007).Conclusion: We found that: 1) the clinical data reported by sentinel physicians is a valid indicator of influenza activity; 2) the length of influenza activity across the whole of Europe was surprisingly long, ranging from 12-19 weeks; 3) in 4 out of the 8 seasons, there was a west-east spread of influenza, in 3 seasons a south-north spread; not associated with type of dominant virus in those seasons.