The burden of mortality attributable to diabetes - Realistic estimates for the year 2000
The burden of mortality attributable to diabetes - Realistic estimates for the year 2000
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DOI：
10.2337/diacare.28.9.2130
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发表时间：
2005-09-01
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
King, H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Roglic, G;Unwin, N;King, H
目的 - 估计 2000 年全球因糖尿病导致的超额死亡人数。 研究设计和方法 - 我们使用了世界卫生组织使用的计算机化通用正式疾病模型 (DisMod 11)，通过对发病率、患病率和特定疾病死亡率之间的关系进行建模来评估疾病负担。基线输入数据包括人口结构、特定年龄和性别的糖尿病患病率估计值，以及已发表的糖尿病患者与非糖尿病患者相比相对死亡风险的估计值。结果通过基于人群的观察和相对死亡风险的独立估计进行了验证。 结果 - 2000 年，糖尿病导致的全球超额死亡率估计为 290 万人，相当于所有死亡人数的 5.2%。在最贫穷国家，糖尿病造成的超额死亡率占死亡人数的 2-3%，在美国、加拿大和中东则占 8% 以上。在 35-64 岁的人群中，6-27% 的死亡可归因于糖尿病。 结论——这是对糖尿病死亡率的首次全球估计。在全球范围内，糖尿病可能是第五大死因。
OBJECTIVE- To estimate the global number of excess deaths due to diabetes in the year 2000.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS- We used a computerized generic formal disease model (DisMod 11), used by the World Health Organization to assess disease burden through modeling the relationships between incidence, prevalence, and disease-specific mortality. Baseline input data included population structure, age- and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence, and available published estimates of relative risk of death for people with diabetes compared with people without diabetes. The results were validated with population-based observations and independent estimates of relative risk of death.RESULTS- The excess global mortality attributable to diabetes in the year 2000 was estimated to be 2.9 million deaths, equivalent to 5.2% of all deaths. Excess mortality attributable to diabetes accounted for 2-3% of deaths in poorest countries and over 8% in the U.S., Canada, and the Middle East. In people 35-64 years old, 6-27% of deaths were attributable to diabetes.CONCLUSIONS- These are the first global estimates of mortality attributable to diabetes. Globally, diabetes is likely to be the fifth leading cause of death.