A Three-Part Bayesian Network for Modeling Dwelling Fires and Their Impact upon People and Property.
A Three-Part Bayesian Network for Modeling Dwelling Fires and Their Impact upon People and Property.
复制标题
用于模拟住宅火灾及其对人员和财产影响的三部分贝叶斯网络。
DOI：
10.1111/risa.13113
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Matellini DB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Matellini DB
在英国，住宅火灾是所有火灾相关死亡人数的主要原因。这些事件的发展涉及以许多不同方式联合收割机结合的多种变量的相互作用。因此，住宅火灾风险的评估可能是复杂的，这往往导致在消防安全规划和决策的模糊性。在这篇文章中，提出了一个三部分贝叶斯网络模型来研究住宅火灾从点燃到熄灭，以提高住宅火灾安全评估的信心。该模型结合了硬数据和软数据，为选定的结果提供后验概率。案例研究展示了模型的功能，并提供了证据，其使用规划和事故调查。
In the United Kingdom, dwelling fires are responsible for the majority of all fire‐related fatalities. The development of these incidents involves the interaction of a multitude of variables that combine in many different ways. Consequently, assessment of dwelling fire risk can be complex, which often results in ambiguity during fire safety planning and decision making. In this article, a three‐part Bayesian network model is proposed to study dwelling fires from ignition through to extinguishment in order to improve confidence in dwelling fire safety assessment. The model incorporates both hard and soft data, delivering posterior probabilities for selected outcomes. Case studies demonstrate how the model functions and provide evidence of its use for planning and accident investigation.