Opportunistic Market‐Driven Regional Shifts of Cropping Practices Reduce Food Production Capacity of China
Opportunistic Market‐Driven Regional Shifts of Cropping Practices Reduce Food Production Capacity of China
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DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000641
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发表时间：
2018-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Yuan;Shuguang Liu;Wei Liu;Shuqing Zhao;W. Dong;F. Tao;Min Chen;Hui Lin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Yuan;Shuguang Liu;Wei Liu;Shuqing Zhao;W. Dong;F. Tao;Min Chen;Hui Lin
在气候变化的背景下，中国正面临着养活不断增长的人口、耕地面积不断减少和水资源日益短缺的挑战。这项研究发现，种植面积和作物品种构成的机会主义利润驱动型转变严重降低了中国的粮食生产能力。首先，过去五年来，中国主要农作物的区域种植格局发生了巨大变化。东南、华南等水资源丰富、自然灾害较少的地区，为了追求工商业，失去了大片耕地。与此同时，东北、西北等水资源匮乏、自然灾害频发的地区，种植面积有所增加。这些宏观变化导致国家粮食产量每年减少 1.02%。损失的粮食产量足以养活 1300 万人。其次，空间转移伴随着作物种类组成的重大变化，玉米因其耗水量低、经济效益高，种植面积和产量大幅增加。因此，中国玉米库存已占全球库存的一半以上，中国玉米库存使用比已超出可靠水平。市场驱动的区域种植方式转变导致了更大的灌溉需求和加剧的环境压力。我们的研究结果强调，中国的粮食政策需要考虑种植的空间变化以及受区域水资源和气候变化限制的种植作物组成。
China is facing the challenge of feeding a growing population with the declining cropland and increasing shortage of water resources under the changing climate. This study identified that the opportunistic profit‐driven shifts of planting areas and crop species composition have strongly reduced the food production capacity of China. First, the regional cultivation patterns of major crops in China have substantially shifted during the past five decades. Southeast and South China, the regions with abundant water resources and fewer natural disasters, have lost large planting areas of cropland in order to pursue industry and commerce. Meanwhile, Northeast and Northwest China, the regions with low water resources and frequent natural disasters, have witnessed increases in planting areas. These macroshifts have reduced the national food production by 1.02% per year. The lost grain production would have been enough to feed 13 million people. Second, the spatial shifts have been accompanied by major changes in crop species composition, with substantial increases in planting area and production of maize, due to its low water consumption and high economic returns. Consequently, the stockpile of maize in China has accounted for more than half of global stockpile, and the stock to use ratio of maize in China has exceeded the reliable level. Market‐driven regional shifts of cropping practices have resulted in larger irrigation requirements and aggravated environmental stresses. Our results highlighted the need for Chinese food policies to consider the spatial shifts in cultivation, and the planting crop compositions limited by regional water resources and climate change.