Predicting high-risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Nino southern oscillation
Predicting high-risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Nino southern oscillation
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DOI：
10.1046/j.1365-3156.1997.d01-210.x
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发表时间：
1997-12-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Patz, J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bouma, MJ;Poveda, G;Patz, J
1960年至1992年期间哥伦比亚疟疾病例的年际变化表明与称为厄尔尼诺南方涛动的周期性气候现象密切相关。与其他年份相比，疟疾病例在厄尔尼诺年增加了17.3%，在后厄尔尼诺年增加了35.1%。疟疾年总发病数与ENSO的主要参数赤道东太平洋海表温度（SST）异常也有很强的相关性（r = 0.62，P < 0.001）。在哥伦比亚，疟疾与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动之间的密切关系可用来预测疟疾高风险和低风险年份，以便有足够的时间调动资源，减少流行病的影响。鉴于目前的厄尔尼诺现象，我们预计1998年哥伦比亚的疟疾病例会增加。需要进一步的研究来阐明这种关联的机制。由于哥伦比亚的气候条件多种多样，将气候和病媒生态与疟疾发病率联系起来的区域研究可能会进一步改进基于ENDO的预警系统。预测与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动和相关气候变量有关的疟疾风险也可作为预测全球气候变化所造成的长期影响的短期类比。
The interannual variation in malaria cases in Colombia between 1960 and 1992 shows a close association with a periodic climatic phenomenon known as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Compared with other years, malaria cases increased by 17.3% during a Nino year and by 35.1% in the post-Nino year. The annual total number of malaria cases is also strongly correlated (r = 0.62, P < 0.001) with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a principal parameter of ENSO. The strong relation between malaria and ENSO in Colombia can be used to predict high and low-risk years for malaria with sufficient time to mobilize resources to reduce the impact of epidemics. In view of the current El Nino conditions, we anticipate an increase in malaria cases in Colombia in 1998. Further studies to elucidate the mechanisms which underlie the association are required. As Colombia has a wide range of climatic conditions, regional studies relating climate and vector ecology to malaria incidence may further improve an ENDO-based early warning system. Predicting malaria risk associated with ENSO and related climate variables may also serve as a short-term analogue for predicting longer-term effects posed by global climate change.