The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK
The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-021-03054-8
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发表时间：
2021-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Freeman, A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, N. W.;Freeman, A.
这里使用一系列与政策相关的农业气候指标来评估气候变化对英国农业的影响，这些指标表征了气候资源的变化以及影响生产力和运营的危险。本文用格网观测数据和UKCP18气候预测对英国各地的这些指标进行了预测，这些预测代表了一系列温室气体排放情景。这些预测可用于为气候变化缓解和适应政策提供信息。如果排放继续保持在较高的轨道上，21世纪英国各地的气候资源和危害将发生重大变化，如果减少排放以实现国际气候政策目标，仍将发生一些变化。某些作物的生长季节将延长，作物生长将加速，干旱和高温风险(对于某些类型的生产)将增加。土壤在秋季将变得更加干燥，尽管冬季和春季的变化较小。更长的生长季和更温暖的气温为新作物提供了机会，这取决于生产面临越来越多挑战的影响。大多数变化在英国各地相对一致，尽管干旱风险和热应激风险在南部和东部增加最快。气候变化趋势叠加了相当大的年复一年的变化性。尽管气候预测对变化的方向达成了强烈的共识，但在给定的排放情景下，变化的速度和幅度存在相当大的不确定性。对于基于温度的指标，这反映了气候敏感性的不确定性，而对于基于降水的指标，这在很大程度上反映了影响英国的天气系统预测变化的不确定性。
The effect of climate change on agriculture in the UK is here assessed using a comprehensive series of policy-relevant agro-climate indicators characterising changes to climate resources and hazards affecting productivity and operations. This paper presents projections of these indicators across the UK with gridded observed data and UKCP18 climate projections representing a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The projections can be used to inform climate change mitigation and adaptation policy. There will be substantial changes in the climate resource and hazard across the UK during the twenty-first century if emissions continue to follow a high trajectory, and there will still be some changes if emissions reduce to achieve international climate policy targets. Growing seasons for certain crops will lengthen, crop growth will be accelerated, and both drought and heat risks (for some types of production) will increase. Soils will become drier in autumn, although there will be less change in winter and spring. The longer growing seasons and warmer temperatures provide opportunities for new crops, subject to the effects of increasing challenges to production. Most of the changes are relatively consistent across the UK, although drought risk and heat stress risk increase most rapidly in the south and east. The climate change trend is superimposed onto considerable year to year variability. Although there is strong consensus across climate projections on the direction of change, there is considerable uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of change for a given emissions scenario. For the temperature-based indicators, this reflects uncertainty in climate sensitivity, whilst for the precipitation-based indicators largely reflects uncertainty in projected changes in the weather systems affecting the UK.