Integrative demographic modeling reveals population level impacts of PCB toxicity to juvenile snapping turtles.
Integrative demographic modeling reveals population level impacts of PCB toxicity to juvenile snapping turtles.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envpol.2013.08.031
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
C. Salice;C. L. Rowe;K. Eisenreich
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
C. Salice;C. L. Rowe;K. Eisenreich
生态毒理学和风险评估的一个重大挑战在于将观察到的污染物效应置于有意义的生态环境中。多氯联苯（PCBs）已被证明会影响幼年鳄龟的生存和生长，但如果没有正式的种群水平评估，很难辨别这些影响的生态意义。我们使用人口统计矩阵模型来探讨多氯联苯对海龟的潜在种群水平影响。我们的模型显示，多氯联苯对孵化时幼鱼的生存、生长和大小的影响可能转化为种群水平的负面影响，尽管这些生命周期成分通常对种群水平的过程贡献不大。这项研究指出，使用综合人口模型方法可以更好地了解污染物对野生动物的影响。结果表明，种群水平的影响只有在几年后才会显现出来，这表明对于长寿的物种来说，检测有害污染物的影响可能是具有挑战性的。
A significant challenge in ecotoxicology and risk assessment lies in placing observed contaminant effects in a meaningful ecological context. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been shown to affect juvenile snapping turtle survival and growth but the ecological significance of these effects is difficult to discern without a formal, population-level assessment. We used a demographic matrix model to explore the potential population-level effects of PCBs on turtles. Our model showed that effects of PCBs on juvenile survival, growth and size at hatching could translate to negative effects at the population level despite the fact that these life cycle components do not typically contribute strongly to population level processes. This research points to the utility of using integrative demographic modeling approaches to better understand contaminant effects in wildlife. The results indicate that population-level effects are only evident after several years, suggesting that for long-lived species, detecting adverse contaminant effects could prove challenging.