Cancer incidence in urban Shanghai, 1973-2010: an updated trend and age-period-cohort effects.
Cancer incidence in urban Shanghai, 1973-2010: an updated trend and age-period-cohort effects.
复制标题
1973-2010年上海城区癌症发病率：最新趋势和年龄-时期-队列效应
DOI：
10.1186/s12885-016-2313-2
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发表时间：
2016-04-21
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Wu F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bao PP;Zheng Y;Wu CX;Huang ZZ;Gao YT;Jin F;Xiang YB;Zhong WJ;Lu W;Wu F
提供1973-2010年上海市区癌症发病率时间趋势的综合概述。用Joinpoint分析评估整个期间和年龄标准化发病率（ASR）时间段的估计年百分比变化（EAPC）。建立同期队列（APC）模型，研究年龄、时期和出生队列对癌症发病率的影响。在1973-2010年期间，上海市区男性的总体ASR略有下降（EAPC为-0.41），但女性显著增加（EAPC为0.57）。发病率趋势不是线性的，并随时间段而变化。在最近10年（2001-2010年）中，男性的ASR每年下降1.65%，女性稳定。1973-2010年期间，男女食道癌、胃癌和肝癌以及男性肺癌和宫颈癌的发病率持续下降。应该指出的是，这是首次记录到1973-2010年期间男性肺癌发病率显著下降，EAPC为-0.58%，自1996年以来宫颈癌发病率显著上升，EAPC为8.94%。在38年期间，观察到最常见癌症部位的发病率趋势不利：结直肠、胆囊和胆道、胰腺、肾脏、膀胱、脑和中枢神经系统（CNS）、甲状腺、非霍奇金淋巴瘤（NHL）、前列腺、女性乳腺、子宫体和卵巢。APC分析显示，年龄，时期和出生队列产生不同的影响，癌症部位。观察到的趋势主要反映了过去四十年来上海城市社会经济发展和生活方式的巨大变化。
To provide a comprehensive overview of temporal trends in cancer incidence during 1973–2010 in urban Shanghai. The estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) for the whole period and for the time segments in age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were evaluated with Joinpoint analysis. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were modeled to examine the effects of age, period and birth cohort on cancer incidence. The overall ASR decreased slightly and significantly in males (EAPC of −0.41) but increased significantly in females (EAPC of 0.57) during 1973–2010 in urban Shanghai. The incidence trend was not linear and varied by time segments. During the most recent 10 years (2001–2010), the ASR in males decreased by 1.65 % per year and stabilized in females. Incidence rates continued to decline during 1973–2010 for esophagus, stomach, and liver cancer in both sexes, as well as male lung cancer and cervix cancer. It should be noted that it was the first time to document a significant decline in lung cancer incidence among males during 1973–2010 with EAPC of −0.58 %, and a notable upward for cervix cancer since 1996 with EAPC of 8.94 %. Unfavorable trends in incidence were observed for the most common cancer sites in the 38 years period: colorectum, gallbladder & biliary tract, pancreas, kidney, bladder, brain & central nervous system (CNS), thyroid, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), prostate, female breast, corpus uteri, and ovary. APC analysis showed age, period and birth cohort yielded different effects by cancer sites. The observed trends primarily reflect dramatic changes in socioeconomic development and lifestyles in urban Shanghai over the past four decades.