Potential for seasonal prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26 $$^{\circ }$$ ° N
Potential for seasonal prediction of Atlantic sea surface temperatures using the RAPID array at 26 $$^{\circ }$$ ° N
复制标题
使用 26 $$^{circ }$$ ° N 的 RAPID 阵列季节性预测大西洋海面温度的潜力
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-015-2918-1
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Duchez A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Duchez A
大西洋纬向翻转环流（AMOC）在气候系统中起着至关重要的作用，并负责海洋输送的大部分纬向热量。在本文中，使用AMOC观测从26 N RAPID阵列预测北大西洋海表温度的潜力进行了研究。利用空间相关和合成方法，AMOC异常被用作北大西洋海表温度异常（SSTA）的前兆。结果表明，在2 ~ 5个月之间，AMOC主导着一个偶极海温异常，相关性最大。AMOC与SSTA联系的物理机制是一个跷跷板机制，即强烈的AMOC异常增加了26 N以北的平流热量和SSTA，降低了该断面以南的热含量和SSTA。为了进一步了解这一海温偶极子的起源，分别评估了由AMOC平流输送的热量与Ekman输送和海气通量的贡献。我们发现，在5个月的滞后，Ekman分量主要贡献的偶极子和累积海气通量的南部只解释了一小部分的SSTA的变化。鉴于SSTA偶极子的南部包括大西洋飓风的主要发展区域，因此，我们的研究结果表明，从26 N的AMOC观测可能被用来补充现有的大西洋季节性飓风预报。
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays a critical role in the climate system and is responsible for much of the meridional heat transported by the ocean. In this paper, the potential of using AMOC observations from the 26N RAPID array to predict North Atlantic sea surface temperatures is investigated for the first time. Using spatial correlations and a composite method, the AMOC anomaly is used as a precursor of North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The results show that the AMOC leads a dipolar SSTA with maximum correlations between 2 and 5 months. The physical mechanism explaining the link between AMOC and SSTA is described as a seesaw mechanism where a strong AMOC anomaly increases the amount of heat advected north of 26N as well as the SSTA, and decreases the heat content and the SSTA south of this section. In order to further understand the origins of this SSTA dipole, the respective contributions of the heat advected by the AMOC versus the Ekman transport and air–sea fluxes have been assessed. We found that at a 5-month lag, the Ekman component mainly contributes to the southern part of the dipole and cumulative air–sea fluxes only explain a small fraction of the SSTA variability. Given that the southern part of the SSTA dipole encompasses the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes, our results therefore suggest the potential for AMOC observations from 26N to be used to complement existing seasonal hurricane forecasts in the Atlantic.