Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty
Risk, Robustness and Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1002/2017ef000730
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发表时间：
2018-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Guillod, Benoit P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Borgomeo, Edoardo;Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad;Guillod, Benoit P.
基于风险的水资源规划是基于这样一个前提，即水资源管理者的投资应该达到降低风险的边际效益等于实现这一效益的边际成本的程度。然而，这种成本效益方法可能无法保证在不确定的未来条件下（例如在气候变化下）的稳健性。在本文中，我们扩展了基于风险的决策分析，以探索在不同风险态度下增强工程水资源系统鲁棒性的可能方法。风险以用水限制的预期年度成本来衡量，而鲁棒性在决策理论意义上被解释为水资源系统在广泛的未来可能条件下保持性能的能力，表现为可容忍的用水限制风险。将风险态度与稳健性联系起来，允许利益相关者明确地权衡稳健性的增量增长与给定风险水平的投资成本。我们通过对伦敦供水系统的案例研究来说明该框架，使用最先进的区域气候模拟来评估风险和稳健性。面对来自人口增长、需求竞争、预算有限和气候变化的压力，水资源管理者发现越来越难以确定投资以经济有效地确保水资源供应。确定与水有关的投资的传统方法表明，水管理人员的投资应该达到投资的利益，例如减少水资源短缺的风险，等于实现这种利益的成本的程度。然而，围绕未来气候变化和人口增长的一些不确定性意味着，这种被称为成本效益分析的方法不能告诉水资源管理者他们需要知道的有关其投资提供安全供水能力的所有信息。本研究将基于成本效益分析的传统投资规划与不确定性下决策的最新进展结合起来，展示了水资源管理者如何识别能够适应未来不确定性（包括气候变化和人口增长）的投资。伦敦，一个具有全球意义的城市，被作为一个案例研究。开发了伦敦供水系统的计算机模型，然后进行计算机模拟，以揭示在各种不确定因素下确保供水的投资。
Risk-based water resources planning is based on the premise that water managers should invest up to the point where the marginal benefit of risk reduction equals the marginal cost of achieving that benefit. However, this cost-benefit approach may not guarantee robustness under uncertain future conditions, for instance under climatic changes. In this paper, we expand risk-based decision analysis to explore possible ways of enhancing robustness in engineered water resources systems under different risk attitudes. Risk is measured as the expected annual cost of water use restrictions, while robustness is interpreted in the decision-theoretic sense as the ability of a water resource system to maintain performance-expressed as a tolerable risk of water use restrictionsunder a wide range of possible future conditions. Linking risk attitudes with robustness allows stakeholders to explicitly trade-off incremental increases in robustness with investment costs for a given level of risk. We illustrate the framework through a case study of London's water supply system using state-of-the -art regional climate simulations to inform the estimation of risk and robustness.Plain Language Summary Faced with pressures from rising populations, competing demands, limited budgets, and climate change, water managers find it increasingly difficult to identify investments to cost-effectively secure water supplies. Traditional approaches to identify water-related investments suggest that water managers should invest up to the point where the benefit of an investment, for instance to reduce the risk of water shortages, equals the cost of achieving that benefit. However, some of the uncertainties around future climate change and population growth mean that this approach, called cost-benefit analysis, will not tell water managers all they need to know with regards to their investment's ability to provide secure water supplies. This study combines traditional investment planning based on cost-benefit analysis with recent advances in decision-making under uncertainty to show how water managers can identify investments that are resilient to future uncertainties, including climate change and population growth. London, a city of global significance, is taken as a case study. A computer model of London's water supply system is developed and then computer simulations are run to unravel investments that secure supplies under a wide range of uncertainties.