Forecasting the impact of heart failure in the United States: a policy statement from the American Heart Association.
Forecasting the impact of heart failure in the United States: a policy statement from the American Heart Association.
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DOI：
10.1161/hhf.0b013e318291329a
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发表时间：
2013-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Stroke Council
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Heidenreich PA;Albert NM;Allen LA;Bluemke DA;Butler J;Fonarow GC;Ikonomidis JS;Khavjou O;Konstam MA;Maddox TM;Nichol G;Pham M;Piña IL;Trogdon JG;American Heart Association Advocacy Coordinating Committee;Council on Arteriosclerosis, Thrombosis and Vascular Biology;Council on Cardiovascular Radiology and Intervention;Council on Clinical Cardiology;Council on Epidemiology and Prevention;Stroke Council
心力衰竭（HF）是国家医疗保健支出负担和成本的重要贡献者，因HF住院的美国老年人比任何其他医疗条件都多。随着人口老龄化，预计HF的影响将大幅增加。我们通过采用美国心脏协会开发的方法来估计HF的未来成本，以预测2012年至2030年HF的流行病学和未来成本，而不重复计算归因于合并症的成本。该模型假设HF患病率将按年龄、性别和种族/民族保持不变，并且成本上升和技术创新将以相同的速度继续。到2030年，美国将有超过800万人（每33人中有1人）患有HF。2012年至2030年，HF的真实的（2010年$）直接医疗总成本预计将从210亿美元增加到530亿美元。包括HF间接成本在内的总成本预计将从2012年的310亿美元增加到2030年的700亿美元。如果假设HF患者的所有心脏护理费用都可归因于HF（没有费用归因于共病），则2030年治疗HF患者的预计费用估计将高出3倍（直接费用为1600亿美元）。由于人口老龄化，HF的估计患病率和护理成本将显著增加。需要采取预防HF和提高护理效率的策略。
Heart failure (HF) is an important contributor to both the burden and cost of national healthcare expenditures, with more older Americans hospitalized for HF than for any other medical condition. With the aging of the population, the impact of HF is expected to increase substantially. We estimated future costs of HF by adapting a methodology developed by the American Heart Association to project the epidemiology and future costs of HF from 2012 to 2030 without double counting the costs attributed to comorbid conditions. The model assumes that HF prevalence will remain constant by age, sex, and race/ethnicity and that rising costs and technological innovation will continue at the same rate. By 2030, >8 million people in the United States (1 in every 33) will have HF. Between 2012 and 2030, real (2010$) total direct medical costs of HF are projected to increase from $21 billion to $53 billion. Total costs, including indirect costs for HF, are estimated to increase from $31 billion in 2012 to $70 billion in 2030. If one assumes all costs of cardiac care for HF patients are attributable to HF (no cost attribution to comorbid conditions), the 2030 projected cost estimates of treating patients with HF will be 3-fold higher ($160 billion in direct costs). The estimated prevalence and cost of care for HF will increase markedly because of aging of the population. Strategies to prevent HF and improve the efficiency of care are needed.