The Mindanao Conflict in the Philippines: Roots, Costs, and Potential Peace Dividend
The Mindanao Conflict in the Philippines: Roots, Costs, and Potential Peace Dividend
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菲律宾棉兰老岛冲突：根源、成本和潜在的和平红利
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Judd
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Schiavo;M. Judd
本文概述了棉兰老岛冲突的根源和现状，棉兰老岛是一个目前人口约1800万的大岛，是世界上第二古老的内部冲突，简要审查了社会成本，估计了直接经济成本，列出了间接成本和停止冲突的动态优势，并提出了持久解决冲突的某些关键标准。压倒一切的结论是，这样一项决议不仅对受冲突影响地区，而且对整个棉兰老岛都有可能带来巨大的经济和社会利益。事实上，持久解决这一持续冲突可以为该国的发展带来重大好处--主要是通过随后改善菲律宾作为一个可预测与和平的经商之地的国际形象。
This paper summarizes the roots and status of the conflict in Mindanao, a large island with a current population of about 18 million -the second oldest internal conflict in the world- briefly examines the social costs, estimates the direct economic costs, lists the indirect costs and the dynamic advantages from cessation of the conflicts, and suggests certain key criteria for lasting resolution of the conflict. The overriding conclusion is that such a resolution carries the potential for vast economic and social advantages not only for the conflict-affected areas, but for Mindanao as a whole. Indeed, a sustainable settlement of this persistent conflict could carry a major benefit for the development of the country -largely through the ensuing improvement of the international image of the Philippines as a predictable and peaceable place to do business.