Can the risk of coastal hazards be better communicated?
Can the risk of coastal hazards be better communicated?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.11.008
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发表时间：
2018-03
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Jeremy Pile;C. Gouramanis;A. Switzer;B. Rush;I. Reynolds;J. L. A. Soria
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jeremy Pile;C. Gouramanis;A. Switzer;B. Rush;I. Reynolds;J. L. A. Soria
破坏性的沿海灾害，包括海啸泛滥和风暴潮，定期影响世界许多海岸。为了量化这类事件的风险并确定这类危害的保险费水平，保险业通常使用现有的科学文献，再加上概率模型。通常，向客户传达建模结果是困难的，因为它涉及世界或区域规模的风险图以及复发间隔和风险的复杂统计数据。风险地图特别成问题，因为它们必然将传达的信息概括为地图比例，从而减少了细节。因此，整个海岸线都可能被贴上“高风险”的标签，使客户不愿意投资，和/或导致不适当的高保费水平。这就提出了一个问题：在没有广泛概括的情况下，在区域范围内传达风险的最佳方式是什么？在我们的研究中，我们使用历史事件作为案例研究，通过“概念，例子，结果”的教学前提，并创建了一个新颖的多方面的海报地图。我们的方法将鼓励再保险行业从业人员和客户重新考虑他们的风险沟通，重新评估局部风险，并提供详细的替代方案，以取代市场上许多产品中的广泛概括。
Destructive coastal hazards, including tsunami inundation and storm surges, periodically affect many of the world's coasts. To quantify the risk of such events and to identify premium levels for such hazards, the insurance industry commonly uses the available scientific literature, coupled with probabilistic modelling. Often, communicating the results of the modelling to clients is difficult, as it involves world or regional scale risk maps and complex statistics of recurrence intervals and exposure. Risk maps are particularly problematic because they necessarily generalise the information conveyed to the mapping scale, thereby reducing detail. As a result, entire coastlines can be labelled as “high risk”, discouraging clients from investing, and/or leading to inappropriately high premium levels. This raises the question: What is the best way to communicate risk at a regional scale without broad generalisations? In our study, we have used historical events as case studies via the pedagogical premise of “Concept, Example, Consequence”, and created a novel multifaceted poster map. Our approach will encourage reinsurance industry practitioners and clients to reconsider their communication of risk, re-evaluate localised risk, and provide a detailed alternative to the broad generalisations found in many products in the marketplace.