Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples
Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples
复制标题
DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2016.303578
复制
发表时间：
2017-02-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Sevelius, Jae M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Meerwijk, Esther L.;Sevelius, Jae M.
背景。跨性别者的性别认同与他们出生时被指定的性别不同。美国跨性别者的人口数量并不广为人知，部分原因是包括美国人口普查在内的官方记录不包含性别认同数据。如今的人口调查更常收集包含跨性别者的性别认同数据，文化和媒体的世俗趋势为跨性别者创造了一个稍好的环境。
目的。估计美国当前跨性别者的人口数量，并评估随时间推移的任何趋势。
搜索方法。2016年6月和7月，我们通过互联网搜索在PubMed、护理及相关健康文献累积索引和科学网中搜索全国性调查以及“灰色”文献。我们将搜索范围限定在2006年至2016年。
选择标准。我们选择了基于概率抽样且包含自我报告的跨性别身份数据的人口调查。
数据收集与分析。我们使用随机效应荟萃分析来汇总符合条件的调查，并使用荟萃回归来验证我们的假设，即跨性别者人口数量估计值会随时间增加。我们使用子样本和留一法分析来评估偏差。
主要结果。我们的荟萃回归模型基于12项涵盖2007年至2015年的调查，解释了62.5%的模型异质性，调查年份每增加一个单位都有显著影响（F = 17.122；自由度 = 1,10；b = 0.026%；P = 0.002）。将这些结果外推到2016年，表明美国当前每10万人中有390名成年人是跨性别者，全国范围内几乎有100万成年人。这一估计可能对年轻人更具代表性，在我们的分析中年轻人占受访者的50%以上。
作者结论。未来的全国性调查可能会观察到更多的跨性别者。用于询问跨性别身份的问题差异很大，这可能是我们模型中剩余异质性的原因。
公共卫生影响。人口调查中对跨性别者的代表性不足或没有代表是了解这一人群所面临的社会决定因素和健康差异的障碍。我们建议使用标准化问题来识别具有跨性别和非二元性别身份的受访者，这将使人口数量估计更准确。
Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people.Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time.Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, andWebof Science for national surveys, as well as "gray" literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016.Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias.Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P =.002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis.Authors' conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask about transgender identity may account for residual heterogeneity in our models.Public health implications. Under- or nonrepresentation of transgender individuals in population surveys is a barrier to understanding social determinants and health disparities faced by this population. Were commend using standardized questions to identify respondents with transgender and nonbinary gender identities, which will allow a more accurate population size estimate.