The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility
The Emergence of Countercyclical U.S. Fertility
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美国反周期生育率的出现
DOI：
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发表时间：
1979
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Ward
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
W. Butz;M. Ward
目前，关于美国目前生育率下降的原因，无论是专业人士还是非专业人士的观点，都已经逐渐偏离了将经济福祉与理想生育率联系在一起的简单机制。提出了总体经济活动影响生育率的另一种机制。该方法遵循以前的工作，分析了生育率的微观经济决定因素。报告强调了男女收入在影响生育率方面的区别，以及妻子就业和妻子失业的家庭之间的区别。它表明，第二次世界大战后的生育率的运动-在整个20世纪50年代迅速增加，此后急剧下降-可以在这个框架内调和。本文提出了一个经验模型，作为1947-1974年期间特定年龄生育率的决定因素。2项研究结论如下：1）强调收入和价格效应（男性收入和女性工资效应）区别的生育行为的经济模型，成功地解释了美国生育率随时间推移的重要横截面变化特征和总体变动;（2）所提出的模型在一个统一的框架内成功地预测了各年龄组和长时期内生育率的顺周期和反周期变化。妇女目前的就业水平及其年龄差异足以引发持续的反周期生育率变动。
At this time both professional and nonprofessional opinion concerning the cause of the present fertility decline in the U.S. has moved steadily away from the simple mechanism tying economic well-being to desired fertility. An alternative mechanism through which aggregate economic activity affects fertility rates is presented. The approach follows that of previous work which has analyzed the microeconomic determinants of fertility. The distinction between male and female earnings in affecting fertility and the distinction between families with employed and those with unemployed wives is emphasized. It is shown that post-World War 2 movements in fertility rates - a rapid increase throughout the 1950s and a sharp decline thereafter - can be reconciled within this framework. An empirical model is presented as are determinants of age-specific fertility rates for the 1947-1974 period. The 2 study conclusions are the following: 1) economic models of fertility behavior that stress the distinction between income and price effects - male income and female wage effects - are successful in explaining both important features of cross-sectional variations but also aggregate movements of U.S. fertility over time; and 2) the model proposed successfully predicts both procyclical and countercyclical variations in fertility in an unified framework across age groups and over a long period of time. The current level of employment among women and variations in their ages are more than high enough to induce continuing countercyclical fertility movements.