Impacts of Temperature Trends and SPEI on Yields of Major Cereal Crops in the Gambia
Impacts of Temperature Trends and SPEI on Yields of Major Cereal Crops in the Gambia
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DOI：
10.3390/su132212480
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发表时间：
2021-11-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Songcai, You
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jabbi, Fanta F.;Li, Yu'e;Songcai, You
气候变化对冈比亚粮食作物的生产力构成重大威胁。很好地了解气候变异对作物生产的影响，对于气候复原力和改善粮食安全至关重要。该研究考察了1990-2019年期间冈比亚三个农业生态区生长季节温度和SPEI（标准化降水和蒸散指数）对高粱、小米、玉米和水稻产量的影响程度、趋势和关系。平均温度和SPEI呈上升趋势，而观测到的产量在所有地区均呈下降趋势。SPEI与产量呈显著正相关，温度与产量呈负相关。虽然产量对气候变化的反应在不同地区不同，但四种作物产量的20%至62%的变化是由于气候趋势。SPEI和温度的综合影响使产量从3.6千克/公顷/年下降到29.4千克/公顷/年，萨赫勒地区的水稻和玉米产量下降最严重。尽管不考虑相关的极端气候事件可能会产生不确定性，但这项研究强调了过去的气候趋势如何影响冈比亚的谷物产量;因此，当地气候的任何不利变化都可能对该国的粮食安全产生严重影响。有必要作出协调一致的努力，增加对适应战略的投资，以减轻气候对提高作物产量的影响。
Variations in the climate constitute a significant threat to the productivity of food crops in the Gambia. A good understanding of the influence of climate variability on crop production is vital for climate resilience and improved food security. This study examined the trends, relationships, and the extent to which growing season temperatures and the SPEI (Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index) impacted sorghum, millet, maize, and rice yields in three agro-ecological regions of the Gambia during 1990-2019. Mean temperatures and the SPEI exhibited increasing trends while observed yields showed a decline across all regions. The SPEI had a significant positive relationship with yields, and temperatures were negatively associated with yields. Though yield response to climate variability differs among regions, 20% to 62% of variations in the four crop yields were due to climate trends. The combined effect of the SPEI and temperatures decreased yields from 3.6 kg ha(-1) year(-1) to 29.4 kg ha(-1) year(-1), with the most severe decline observed in rice and maize yields in the Sahelian zone. Although uncertainties might arise from not considering related extreme climate events, this study highlights how past climate trends affect cereal yields in the Gambia; thus, any unfavorable change in the local climate could have severe repercussions on the country's food security. There is a need for concerted efforts to increase investments in adaptation strategies to lessen the effects of the climate for improved crop productivity.