Methods of population projections of urban and rural population by sex and age group
Methods of population projections of urban and rural population by sex and age group
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城乡人口性别年龄人口预测方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
1981
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Pujol Jm
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pujol Jm
本文有三个主要目的：1)描述城乡人口预测最常用的方法；2)介绍一些基本问题及其解决方法(比较资料来源中使用的定义)以及确定初始人口的方法；3)较详细地考察这两种方法：分量法和联合国法。对方法进行了描述，并在某些情况下包括了使用这些方法的最佳方式。就初始人口而言，给出了如何确定它的具体说明，强调了依靠统一的城市人口定义的重要性。分量法主要针对其应用所需的信息类型进行了分析，指出了确定变量的不同可能性。就联合国方法而言，对基本假设进行了分析，并推导了主要的解析关系，指出了应用该方法的方法。(作者)(英文摘要)
This paper has 3 main objectives: 1) to describe the methods most used for the projection of urban-rural population; 2) to present some basic problems and the manner in which to solve them (comparison of definitions used in the sources) as well as the way to determine the initial population; and 3) to examine these 2 methods the components method and the U.N. method in some detail. The description of methods is made and includes in some cases the optimum way for them to be utilized. In the case of the initial population specifications are given as to how to determine it stressing the importance of counting on uniform definitions of urban population. The components method is analyzed mainly with regard to the type of information necessary for its application pointing out the different possibilities for the determination of variables. Insofar as the U.N. method is concerned the basic assumptions are analyzed and the main analytical relationships are deduced indicating the way in which to apply it as well. (authors) (summary in ENG)