Assimilation of Radial Velocity from Coastal NEXRAD into HWRF for Improved Forecasts of Landfalling Hurricanes
Assimilation of Radial Velocity from Coastal NEXRAD into HWRF for Improved Forecasts of Landfalling Hurricanes
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DOI：
10.1175/waf-d-20-0163.1
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发表时间：
2021-04
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Ying Wang;Z. Pu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ying Wang;Z. Pu
同化下一代天气雷达（NEXRAD）径向速度数据对对流系统的好处已经在以前的研究中得到证实。然而，这种高时空分辨率观测的同化对飓风预报的影响尚未在国家环境预报中心（NCEP）飓风天气和研究预报（HWRF）系统中得到证实。本研究探讨了NEXRAD径向速度资料在不同资料同化配置下对登陆飓风演变预报的影响。研究了同化结果对同化系统内雷达数据最大距离、超观测值、水平和垂直定位相关长度尺度、背景误差协方差权重等参数的敏感性。选择2018年夏天发生的佛罗伦萨和迈克尔两个飓风案例进行一系列实验。结果表明：飓风强度、内陆风降水不对称结构、降水定量预报等方面均有改善。提供了操作配置的实现建议。
The benefits of assimilating Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radial velocity data for convective systems have been demonstrated in previous studies. However, impacts of assimilation of such high spatial and temporal resolution observations on hurricane forecasts have not been demonstrated with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Hurricane Weather and Research Forecasting (HWRF) system. This study investigates impacts of NEXRAD radial velocity data on forecasts of the evolution of landfalling hurricanes with different configurations of data assimilation. The sensitivity of data assimilation results to influencing parameters within the data assimilation system, such as the maximum range of the radar data, superobservations, horizontal and vertical localization correlation length scale, and weight of background error covariances, are examined. Two hurricane cases, Florence and Michael, which occurred in the summer of 2018 are chosen to conduct a series of experiments. Results show that hurricane intensity, asymmetric structure of inland wind and precipitation, and quantitative precipitation forecasting are improved. Suggestions for implementation of operational configurations are provided.