Children's probability intuitions: Understanding the expected value of complex gambles
Children's probability intuitions: Understanding the expected value of complex gambles
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DOI：
10.1111/1467-8624.00268
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发表时间：
2001-01-01
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Schlottmann, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schlottmann, A
两个实验运用信息整合理论，研究了儿童在不同结果的复杂博弈中对期望值的判断。6奥尔兹、9岁和成年人（研究1中N = 73，研究2中N = 28）看到了涉及摇晃双色管中的大理石的机会游戏。如果弹珠停在蓝色上，就会赢得一个奖项，如果它停在黄色上，就会赢得另一个奖项。孩子们判断一个木偶玩游戏会有多快乐，奖品和蓝色和黄色结果的概率因因素而异。这两项研究中出现了三个主要结果：首先，所有年龄组的参与者都使用规范规定的乘法规则来整合每个个体结果的概率和值，这是一个惊人的发现，因为乘法推理通常不会在8岁之前出现在其他领域。第二，所有年龄组的整体预期值的判断有意义的替代结果，但有个体差异，许多参与者偏离了规范的加法规则，表现出风险寻求和风险厌恶的判断模式类似的风险态度经常发现与成年人。第三，即使是最小的孩子也把概率当作游戏的抽象属性，而不是物理属性。总体而言，与传统的观点相反，目前的研究结果表明，功能的理解概率和期望值的儿童年龄为5或6。这些结果有助于儿童直觉推理能力的证据越来越多。一方面，这种直觉可以支持幼儿令人惊讶的早熟表现，但它也可能导致成年人的判断和决定中明显的偏见。
Two experiments used Information Integration Theory to study how children judge expected value of complex gambles in which alternative outcomes have different prizes. Six-year-olds, 9-year-olds and adults (N = 73 in Study 1, N = 28 in Study 2) saw chance games that involved shaking a marble in a bicolored tube. One prize was won if the marble stopped on blue, another if it stopped on yellow. Children judged how happy a puppet playing the game would be, with the prizes and probability of the blue and yellow outcomes varied factorially. Three main results appeared in both studies: First, participants in all age groups used the normatively prescribed multiplication rule for integrating probability and value of each individual outcome-a striking finding because multiplicative reasoning does not usually appear before 8 years of age in other domains. Second, all age groups based judgment of overall expected value meaningfully on both alternative outcomes, but there were individual differences-many participants deviated from the normative addition rule, showing risk seeking and risk averse patterns of judgment similar to the risk attitudes often found with adults. Third, even the youngest children took probability to be an abstract rather than physical property of the game. Overall, in contrast to the traditional view, the present results demonstrate functional understanding of probability and expected value in children as young as 5 or 6. These results contribute to the growing evidence on children's intuitive reasoning competence. This intuition can, on the one hand, support surprisingly precocious performance in young children, but it may also contribute to the biases evident in adults' judgment and decision.