Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model
Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model
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经济学与流行病：来自估计空间 Econ-SIR 模型的证据
DOI：
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Kurt Mitman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Mark Bognanni;Douglas Hanley;Daniel Kolliner;Kurt Mitman
对有效的流行病管理政策进行经济分析需要采取综合的经济和流行病学方法。我们开发和估计了一个空间的，微观的模型，经济变量的联合演化和流行病的传播。我们每天使用美国县级关于健康、流动性、就业结果和非药物干预(NPI)的新数据对该模型进行经验性的约束。在没有政策或医疗干预的情况下，该模型预测，新病例将在最初阶段呈指数级增长，随后很长一段时间内病例水平基本保持不变，经济活动减少。然而，如果疫苗研发被证明是不可能的，而且抑制不能完全根除这种疾病，功利主义的政策制定者就不能通过使用封锁来显著改善自由放任均衡。相反，如果疫苗将在两年内到达，非营利机构可以通过大幅减少感染源的数量并在疫苗到达之前保持较低的感染率来改善自由放任的结果。减少病毒传播的缓解措施(例如，戴口罩)既减少了病毒的传播，又增加了经济活动。
Economic analysis of effective policies for managing epidemics requires an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. We develop and estimate a spatial, micro-founded model of the joint evolution of economic variables and the spread of an epidemic. We empirically discipline the model using new U.S. county-level data on health, mobility, employment outcomes, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) at a daily frequency. Absent policy or medical interventions, the model predicts an initial period of exponential growth in new cases, followed by a protracted period of roughly constant case levels and reduced economic activity. Nevertheless, if vaccine development proved impossible, and suppression cannot entirely eradicate the disease, a utilitarian policymaker cannot improve significantly over the laissez-faire equilibrium by using lockdowns. Conversely, if a vaccine will arrive within two years, NPIs can improve upon the laissez-faire outcome by dramatically decreasing the number of infectious agents and keeping infections low until vaccine arrival. Mitigation measures that reduce viral transmission (e.g., mask-wearing) both reduce the virus’s spread and increase economic activity.