Harmful Negativity Bias Under a Decentralized System: Retrospective Voting in Japanese Mayoral Elections 1983-2015
Harmful Negativity Bias Under a Decentralized System: Retrospective Voting in Japanese Mayoral Elections 1983-2015
复制标题
去中心化制度下有害的消极偏见：1983-2015年日本市长选举的回顾性投票
DOI：
10.1007/978-981-13-3107-7_16
复制
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Masashi Nishikawa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kimiko Terai;Amihai Glazer;西川雅史;Masashi Nishikawa
本章描述的分析从消极偏见和权力下放的角度考虑了日本市长选举中的追溯投票。这项研究有三个主要发现。 （1）在经济增长率较低的情况下，市长选举的追溯投票现象很突出，这意味着宏观经济状况甚至会影响市长选举。 （2）如果地方指标恶化，现任市长连任概率呈下降趋势，这是一个健康信号。 （3）权力下放后，在经济低增长时期，选民对监督现任者的态度发生明显变化，在地方指标下降时期主持工作的现任者在随后的选举中更受青睐。因此，选民向现任者传达的信息发生了变化，以至于我们的第二个结果在权力下放后被部分抵消。最后，我们总结了这些结果对代议制民主和权力下放的不加批判的信仰的一些影响。
The analysis described in this chapter considers retrospective voting in Japanese mayoral elections from the perspective of negativity bias and decentralization. This study has three main findings. (1) Retrospective voting is prominent for mayoral elections when the economic growth rate is lower, implying that macroeconomic conditions can affect even mayoral elections. (2) The probability of re-election tended to decline for incumbent mayors if the local indicators deteriorated, which is a healthy signal. (3) After decentralization, voters’ attitudes toward monitoring incumbents clearly changed in periods of low economic growth, as incumbents who presided over periods of declining local indicators were more favored in subsequent elections. Thus, voters’ messages to incumbents shifted such that our second result was partly offset after decentralization. We conclude with some implications of these results regarding uncritical faith in both representative democracy and decentralization.