The hunger forecast.
The hunger forecast.
复制标题
饥饿预测。
作者：
P. Voosen
在圣巴巴拉的加州大学的一个安静的角落里，气候灾害中心实践着它所谓的“人道主义地球系统科学”。“这个小团队与美国国际开发署（USAID）资助的合作伙伴合作，在20多年的时间里，从基本的天气监测到气候科学，农学和经济学的复杂融合，改进了预测，可以在干旱和随后的饥荒发生前几个月发出警告。该小组的工具被用于世界各地援助机构的规划，包括美国国际开发署，他们是该机构饥荒预警系统网络的基础，该网络指导每年40亿美元粮食援助的部署。从2015年到2019年，全球面临饥荒风险的人数增加了80%，达到约8500万人。全球变暖及其引发的干旱和风暴在这一增长中发挥了作用，非洲风暴和干旱的速度和严重程度似乎在增加。
In a quiet corner of the University of California, Santa Barbara, the Climate Hazards Center practices what it calls "humanitarian earth system science." Working with partners funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), this small team has refined its forecasts over 20 years from basic weather monitoring to a sophisticated fusion of climate science, agronomy, and economics that can warn of drought and subsequent famines months before they arise. The team9s tools feed into planning at aid agencies around the world, including USAID, where they are the foundation of the agency9s Famine Early Warning Systems Network, which guides the deployment of $4 billion in annual food aid. The forecasts are needed more than ever. From 2015 to 2019, the global number of people at risk of famine rose 80% to some 85 million. Global warming, and the droughts and storms it encourages, plays a role in this increase, with the pace and severity of storms and droughts in Africa seemingly increasing.