Risk of Large‐Scale Evacuation Based on the Effectiveness of Rescue Strategies Under Different Crowd Densities
Risk of Large‐Scale Evacuation Based on the Effectiveness of Rescue Strategies Under Different Crowd Densities
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01923.x
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发表时间：
2013-08
期刊：
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Jinghong Wang;S. Lo;Qingsong Wang;Jinhua Sun;Honglin Mu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jinghong Wang;S. Lo;Qingsong Wang;Jinhua Sun;Honglin Mu
在大规模疏散过程中，人群密度是影响一大群人移动特性的关键因素。本文考虑了人群流动的宏观特征和随后的救援策略，分析了影响大规模人群流动的一系列特征人群密度，以及人群极度拥挤时的最大承载密度。在人群密度特征的基础上，运用排队理论对人群运动进行模拟。在此基础上，研究了疏散通道前人群到达强度的表征——典型人群密度对疏散通道救援策略的影响。此外，提出了“人群密度风险轴”来确定大规模疏散时救援策略的效率，即救援策略是否能够有效地保持或提高疏散效率。最后，通过对疏散风险值的一些合理假设，建立了疏散风险的三维分布，以说明人群密度的风险轴。本研究旨在从救援策略效率的角度对大规模人群疏散的风险进行一些宏观但新颖的分析。
Crowd density is a key factor that influences the moving characteristics of a large group of people during a large‐scale evacuation. In this article, the macro features of crowd flow and subsequent rescue strategies were considered, and a series of characteristic crowd densities that affect large‐scale people movement, as well as the maximum bearing density when the crowd is extremely congested, were analyzed. On the basis of characteristic crowd densities, the queuing theory was applied to simulate crowd movement. Accordingly, the moving characteristics of the crowd and the effects of typical crowd density—which is viewed as the representation of the crowd's arrival intensity in front of the evacuation passageways—on rescue strategies was studied. Furthermore, a “risk axle of crowd density” is proposed to determine the efficiency of rescue strategies in a large‐scale evacuation, i.e., whether the rescue strategies are able to effectively maintain or improve evacuation efficiency. Finally, through some rational hypotheses for the value of evacuation risk, a three‐dimensional distribution of the evacuation risk is established to illustrate the risk axle of crowd density. This work aims to make some macro, but original, analysis on the risk of large‐scale crowd evacuation from the perspective of the efficiency of rescue strategies.