A discrete choice analysis of transport mode choice causality and perceived barriers of sustainable mobility in the MENA region
A discrete choice analysis of transport mode choice causality and perceived barriers of sustainable mobility in the MENA region
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DOI：
10.1016/j.tranpol.2019.04.005
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发表时间：
2019-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
Masoumi, Houshmand E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Masoumi, Houshmand E.
尽管对城市出行方式选择的研究相当多，但仍存在两个空白：我们对可持续出行方式和个人汽车使用动机的感知障碍和态度障碍的理解有限，对于中东和北非（MENA）等特定地理环境，模式选择决策的原因（非相关性）几乎是未知的。本研究旨在回答三个问题：(1)在中东和北非地区，选择主动交通和公共交通等可持续交通方式的主要障碍是什么？(2)哪些态度或物理因素决定了德黑兰、伊斯坦布尔和开罗的交通方式选择意图和决策？(3)与西方社会相比，案例城市模式选择决策的决定因素有何不同？在本研究中，2017年在德黑兰、伊斯坦布尔和开罗收集的8284名受访者的数据应用于离散选择模型。模型的因变量是反对步行、骑自行车和乘坐公共交通的主要原因，以及鼓励汽车驾驶的主要因素。根据调查结果，步行距离长，缺乏或缺乏自行车基础设施，社会和文化问题以及对骑自行车的压力，以及与公共交通相比个人对汽车的偏好，都阻碍了乘客步行，骑自行车和使用公共交通工具。舒适和方便是人们不乘坐公共交通而选择私家车的原因。这些决定因素与西方社会模式选择决策的主要决定因素相当不同。通过运用多项逻辑回归模型，发现与出行特征、认知、土地利用和邻里关系、社会经济和自我选择相关的11个变量在解释步行、骑自行车和公共交通使用的障碍以及使用汽车的动机这四个模型中具有显著或边际显著意义。这些发现支持了本研究的假设，即与西方社会相比，中东和北非特大城市在可持续交通的感知和物理障碍以及汽车使用动机方面存在差异。简而言之，模式选择决策和感知决定因素是上下文敏感的。本研究的结论可用于中东和北非地区的城市和交通规划，以促进更可持续的交通方式。
Although there is considerable number of studies on urban travel mode choice, there are still two gaps: we have limited understanding of perceived and attitudinal barriers of sustainable modes and motives of personal car use, and the causes (not correlations) of mode choice decisions are almost unknown for certain geographical contexts such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study seeks to answer three questions: (1) what are the main barriers to choosing sustainable transport modes like active mobility and public transportation in the Middle East and North Africa? (2) which attitudinal or physical determinants define the transportation mode choice intentions and decisions in Tehran, Istanbul, and Cairo? and (3) what are the differences between the determinants of mode choice decisions in the case cities compared with those of Western societies? In this study, the data collected from 8284 interviewees in Tehran, Istanbul, and Cairo in 2017 were applied in a discrete choice model. The dependent variables of the modeling were the perceived main reasons against walking, biking, and public transit ridership, and the main factor encouraging car-driving. According to the findings, long walking distances, absences or lack of biking infrastructures, social and cultural problems and pressures against biking, and personal preference for cars compared to public transport prevent passengers from walking, biking, and using public transport. Comfort and convenience are the factors that make people avoid public transit in favor of cars. These determinants are fairly different from the main determinants of mode choice decisions in the Western societies. By applying a multinomial logistic regression model, 11 variables related to travel characteristics, perceptions, land-use and neighborhood, socio-economics, and self-selection were found significant or marginally significant in explaining all four models: the barriers to walking, biking, and public transit-use, and the motives for car-use. These findings support the hypothesis of this study that there are differences between the perceived and physical barriers to sustainable mobility as well as the motives of car-use in MENA megacities compared to Western societies. In short, mode-choice decisions and perceived determinants are context-sensitive. The conclusions of this study could be applied in urban and transportation planning in the MENA region to promote more sustainable mobility modes.