Obesity status transitions across the elementary years: use of Markov chain modelling
Obesity status transitions across the elementary years: use of Markov chain modelling
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DOI：
10.1111/ijpo.12025
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发表时间：
2016-04-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Johnston, C. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen, T. -A.;Baranowski, T.;Johnston, C. A.
本研究的目的是评估超重和肥胖状态的转移概率，采用一阶马尔可夫转移模型适用于小学child.MethodComplete纵向数据横跨11个评估，可从1494小学儿童（7599名学生在41出45所学校在德克萨斯州东南部学区）从幼儿园到五年级的开始。在每个学年开始和结束时，由受过训练的学校护士使用标准程序测量身高和体重，进行连续11次评估。为了估计转移概率，一阶三态（健康体重，超重和肥胖）马尔可夫转移模型拟合的纵向体重状态数据的所有assessmentperiods.ResultsWhile有一个逐渐转变到更多的儿童在超重或肥胖类别超过5年，儿童最有可能留在同一个体重类别作为以前的评估。改变体重状况类别的概率存在一致的季节性差异，与学年相比，夏季超重和肥胖的概率更大。肥胖的过渡概率较高的男孩，西班牙裔和非西班牙裔黑人，和较低的社会经济地位children.ConclusionsThis study provides the first application of a Markov transition model to child weight status data.过渡到超重和肥胖类别的比例很小，但持续存在，过渡出超重或肥胖的比例较小。早期监测和夏季干预策略是必要的，以防止缓慢，但无情的过渡到超重和肥胖类别。
ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to assess overweight and obesity status transition probabilities using first-order Markov transition models applied to elementary school children.MethodComplete longitudinal data across 11 assessments were available from 1494 elementary school children (from 7599 students in 41 out of 45 schools in a Southeast Texas school district) from kindergarten to the beginning of the fifth grade. Heights and weights were measured by trained school nurses using standard procedures at the beginning and end of each school year for the 11 consecutive assessments. To estimate the transition probabilities, first-order three-state (healthy weight, overweight and obese) Markov transition models were fit to the longitudinal weight status data of all assessment periods.ResultsWhile there was a gradual shift to more children in the overweight or obese category over 5 years, children were most likely to stay in the same weight category as the previous assessment. A consistent seasonal difference in the probability of changing weight status category was seen, with a greater probability of becoming overweight and obese during the summer compared with the school year. The transition probabilities to obesity were higher among boys, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black, and lower socioeconomic status children.ConclusionsThis study provides the first application of a Markov transition model to child weight status data. The transitions into the overweight and obese categories were small, but persistent, with smaller percentages transitioning out of overweight or obese. Early monitoring and summer intervention strategies are needed to prevent the slow, but relentless, transition into the overweight and obese categories.