Climatic variables and transmission of malaria: A 12-year data analysis in Shuchen County, China
Climatic variables and transmission of malaria: A 12-year data analysis in Shuchen County, China
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DOI：
10.1016/s0033-3549(04)50218-2
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发表时间：
2003-01-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Ni, JF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bi, P;Tong, SL;Ni, JF
Objective.本研究的目的是探讨气候变化对中国某县疟疾传播的影响，为类似地区的疟疾防治提供建议。利用舒城县1980- 1991年逐月气候资料和疟疾发病率资料进行时间序列分析。斯皮尔曼相关分析表明，月平均最高气温、最低气温、月平均相对湿度和月降水量与该县疟疾月发病率呈正相关。回归分析表明，月平均最低气温和月降水量是舒城县疟疾传播的重要气候变量，且有1个月的滞后效应。季节性在回归模型中也很显著，疟疾发病率呈下降趋势。研究结果显示，在地理、气候、社会经济条件与舒城县相似的地区，气候变数应视为可能的预测因子。
Objective. The objective of this study was to explore the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria, a vector-borne disease, in a county of China and provide suggestions to similar regions for disease prevention.Methods. A time-series analysis was conducted using data on monthly climatic variables and monthly incidence of malaria in Shuchen County, China, for the period 1980-1991.Results. Spearman's correlation analysis showed that monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures, two measures of monthly mean relative humidity, and monthly amount of precipitation were positively correlated with the monthly incidence of malaria in the county. Regression analysis suggested that monthly mean minimum temperature and total monthly rainfall, with a one-month lagged effect, were significant climatic variables in the transmission of malaria in Shuchen County. Seaonality was also significant in the regression model and there was a declining secular trend in the incidence of malaria.Conclusion. The results indicate that climatic variables should be considered as possible predictors for regions with similar geographic, climatic, and socioeconomic conditions to those of Shuchen County.