Do Get-Out-the-Vote Calls Reduce Turnout? The Importance of Statistical Methods for Field Experiments
Do Get-Out-the-Vote Calls Reduce Turnout? The Importance of Statistical Methods for Field Experiments
复制标题
呼吁投票会降低投票率吗？
DOI：
10.1017/s0003055405051658
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发表时间：
2005
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
K. Imai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Imai
Gerber和绿色（2000）在他们的一项具有里程碑意义的实地实验研究中发现，呼吁投票会使投票率降低5个百分点。在这篇文章中，我介绍了统计方法，可以发现实验设计和实际实现之间的差异。这种方法的应用表明，Gerber和绿色的负面发现是由于无意中偏离了他们所述的实验方案。最初的发现导致作者修改了原始数据，并撤回了他们文章中的数值结果。然而，对其订正数据的分析揭示了执行错误的新的系统模式。事实上，修订数据的治疗分配似乎比校正前更不随机。为了调整这些问题，我采用了一种更合适的统计方法，并证明电话拉票使投票率增加了5个百分点。本文演示了如何统计方法可以发现和纠正现场实验的并发症。
In their landmark study of a field experiment, Gerber and Green (2000) found that get-out-the-vote calls reduce turnout by five percentage points. In this article, I introduce statistical methods that can uncover discrepancies between experimental design and actual implementation. The application of this methodology shows that Gerber and Green's negative finding is caused by inadvertent deviations from their stated experimental protocol. The initial discovery led to revisions of the original data by the authors and retraction of the numerical results in their article. Analysis of their revised data, however, reveals new systematic patterns of implementation errors. Indeed, treatment assignments of the revised data appear to be even less randomized than before their corrections. To adjust for these problems, I employ a more appropriate statistical method and demonstrate that telephone canvassing increases turnout by five percentage points. This article demonstrates how statistical methods can find and correct complications of field experiments.